- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 61% to sell
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.0506
- Upcoming Events: FOMC Member's Evans Speech; FOMC Member's Powell's Speech; Fed Chair Yellen's Speech; FOMC Member's Fischer's Speech
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell markedly last week, official figures revealed on Thursday. The US Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims dropped to 223,000 during the week ended February 24, the lowest level since March 1973, following the preceding week's downwardly revised 242,000 filings. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 243,000 in the reported week. That marked the 104th week of claims below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. Analysts suggest that the US labour markets are at or close to full employment. The four-week moving average of claims, which is considered a better measure of labour market trends, declined 6,250 to 234,250 last week, the lowest since April 1973.
Data also showed the number of continuing jobless claims rose 3,000 to 3.07 million in the week ending February 18, while their four-week moving average climbed 750 to 2.07 million. The strong labour market performance combined with solid inflation growth are expected to give the Federal Reserve more evidence to support a rate hike at its next policy meeting. Back in the Q4, the US economy expanded at a 1.9% annualized pace and is expected to grow 1.8% in the first quarter of 2017. After the release, the US Dollar Index hit its seven-week high.
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Upcoming events: FOMC
On Friday the members of the Federal Reserve will speak out and explain their view on monetary policy. First, at 15:15 GMT FOMC member from Chicago Fed, Evans, will speak. Afterwards, at 17:15 GMT FOMC Member and a Governor of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will give a speech. Most important will be the speech given by Janet Yellen at 18:00 GMT at the Executives Club of Chicago. At the same time FOMC member Stanley Fischer will speak at the US Monetary Policy Forum in New York.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
Euro finds support near 1.05 mark
Daily Chart: The common European currency reached below the 1.05 mark against the US Dollar during Thursday's trading session and found support there. As a result the currency exchange rate is surging on Friday. There are two possible outcomes from this situation. First of all the rate might reach the weekly PP at 1.0562, which is providing resistance to the pair. On the other hand another attempt at the weekly S1 at 1.0491 by the US Dollar might occur. Due to the recent fall of the Euro it is quite possible that this is just a consolidation move, and another attempt to pass the weekly S1 will occur soon.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Hourly chart: The hourly chart first of all reveals that the previously described descending channel pattern has become obsolete, as it has done its task in directing the currency exchange rate to the weekly S1. However, the currency exchange rate rebounded before it touched the support level, as the 1.0495 level was the point of the rebound. The resulting rebound has been firmly moving northwards. Although, t is set to meet with a combined resistance of the 55-hour SMA and the upper Bollinger band before an attempt at the weekly PP, 100 and 200 hour SMAs near the 1.0560 level can be attempted.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders are bullish
SWFX traders have become bullish on the pair, as 54% of open positions are long on Friday. In the meantime, 61% of trader set up orders are set to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders have increased their bullish view on the pair, as only 59.69% of trader open positions are long at the marketplace, compared to 56.63% previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients are no longer neutral on the pair, as 54.02% of open positions are long on Friday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.06 in April
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between February 3 and March 3 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.06 by the start of April. In general, 52% (+1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.06 in ninety days, and 27% (+2%) see it below 1.02. In the meantime, 10% of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade above 1.12 in three months. © Dukascopy Bank SA