EUR/USD about to fall further

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • SWFX market sentiment is 51% bearish
  • Trader pending orders are 60% to sell
  • Pair opened Friday's session at 1.0654
  • Upcoming Events: US Import Prices; Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
The situation on the EUR/USD pair during the early hours of Friday's trading session was rather interesting, as a big move was about to occur. The reason for that was the fact that the currency exchange rate began the day in the middle of the previously active support cluster. In addition, there are various minor signals, indicating that the currency pair is preparing to move below 1.0650 level.

US crude oil inventories jumped more than markets anticipated amid a sharp increase in imports and rise in Cushing crude inventories, official figures showed on Wednesday. According to the Energy Information Administration, US crude stockpiles climbed 13.8 million barrels during the week ended February 3, following the preceding week's gain of 6.5 million barrels and surpassing analysts' expectations for a rise of 2.7 million barrels. The EIA reported US crude oil imports averaged 1.1 million barrels per day last week, rising the most at the Gulf Coast, where inventories surged 10.9 million, the record weekly increase, to 267.6 million barrels. Crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, jumped 1.1 million barrels.

Meanwhile, gasoline stocks dropped 869,000 barrels in the same week, topping forecasts for a 1.1 million-barrel rise. Distillate stocks advanced 29,0000 barrels, whereas analysts anticipated a 300,000 barrel-increase. The EIA also said that refinery utilization rates fell 0.5% to 87.7%, while demand for refinery feedstocks declined 54,000 barrels per day. As a result, the price of West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 0.5% to $52.47 per barrel, up from $51.22 ahead of the release, while Brent futures advanced 0.8% to $55.48 per barrel. Earlier this week, the American Petroleum Institute reported US crude stocks climbed 14.3 million barrels.

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Upcoming events: Minor US data

During the last trading session of the week there will be released only minor data releases, which could affect the strength of the US Dollar and subsequently the financial instruments, in which it is involved. At 13:30 GMT US Import Prices will be published. Later in the day, at 15:00 GMT, the Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment will be released.



EUR/USD between levels of significance

Daily Chart: During the early hours of Friday's trading session the common European currency began the day and traded against the US Dollar between the levels of significance, which together have provided the pair with support for the past three consecutive trading sessions. At the start of the session the currency exchange rate was above the monthly PP, which is at 1.0650. The forecast of a decline remains in force, as it can be clearly seen that slowly but surely the pair is moving lower. After passing the monthly PP the rate is most likely set to fall to the 55-day SMA at 1.0688.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that after the last drop to the levels of significance, which provided support for the past three consecutive trading session, the currency exchange rate attempted to rebound. However, it was put down by the 20-day SMA. It is most likely that the 20-day SMA will provide the needed momentum to slowly push through the support cluster.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX traders shift

Traders have abandoned the bearish outlook, as 51% of trader open positions are long on Friday. In the meantime, 60% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.


OANDA traders have also changed their opinion, regarding the pair, as 51.59% of open EUR/USD positions were long on Friday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders have decreased their bearish outlook, as 55.46% of open positions are short, compared to 56.54% previously.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility



Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.07 in May

Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between January 10 and February 10 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.07 by the start of May. In general, 48% (-2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally below 1.06 in ninety days, and 22% see it below 1.02. In the meantime, 22% (+2%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will trade above 1.12 in three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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