- The share of bears is 57% on Monday
- Pending orders are Euro-positive in 53% of all cases
- Bears are setting eyes on 1.13 (20-day SMA and weekly S1)
- Daily technical indicators are giving bullish signals at the moment
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: German Bundesbank Monthly Report; FOMC Members Lacker and Brainard Speak
The Euro zone slipped again into deflation, Eurostat confirmed the earlier estimate. Consumer prices in the currency bloc recorded negative growth for the first time since March, adding to signs that the ECB's ongoing stimulus programme might not be sufficient to support the region's economy and return inflation to the targeted level of just below 2%. The consumer price index in the 19-nation bloc declined 0.1% in annual terms in September after the 0.1% rise a month earlier. However, the gauge was slightly more positive when measured on a monthly basis, with prices climbing 0.2% compared to flat growth in August and 0.2% forecast. At the same time, the core CPI, which stripped out volatile components such as energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, edged higher 0.9% on year in September.
Persistently weak and even sub-zero inflation readings are building the pressure on the European Central Bank to deploy further easing measures. ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said more needed to be done to support inflation. Nowotny added that the additional measures should involve structural tools as well as measures to underpin demand.
Upcoming fundamentals: Monday to bring few important fundamental releases
There are no major economic events expected to take place in the beginning of this week. In Europe, the Bundesbank of Germany will publish its monthly report, which usually contains analysis of present and future economic conditions in the Europe's largest economy. The report is estimated to be released at 10:00 GMT.
EUR/USD risks declining to 1.13
Bears continued to dominate the EUR/USD currency pair on Friday. The cross declined by additional 30 pips to reach the 1.1345 mark by the end of the session. This event exposes the next demand area around 1.13, which is guarded by the 20-day SMA and weekly S1 at the moment. A failure here would imply an additional slump towards 1.1240 (monthly PP; weekly S2; 55-day SMA). We expect the weekly pivot point and monthly R1 at 1.1392/95 to weigh on the Euro in the near term, despite daily technical indicators being bullish on the matter.Daily chart
Risks of a further downside movement of the EUR/USD pair are still in place, even though the European currency is now receiving some support from the 200-hour SMA, currently at 1.1352. While trading above it, our outlook keeps a neutral stance with respect to the cross.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment stays bearish, while bullish orders are still above 50%
Among clients of OANDA and SAXO Bank, the sentiment remains largely negative towards the Euro. With 62% of OANDA open positions being bearish, the share of short trades at SAXO Bank is even higher at 69% on Monday morning.