- 51% of all orders are to sell the Sterling
- Bulls and bears are in perfect equilibrium
- Immediate resistance is at 1.2907
- The closest support rests at 1.2889
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Upcoming events: UK CPI, UK PPI Output, UK RPI, UK HPI, US Building Permits, US Housing Starts, US Capacity Utilization Rate, US Industrial Production
On Monday, the British Prime Minister Theresa May, appointed after the country voted to leave the European Union on June 23, promised to extend British workers' rights in both workplace and boardroom. During her visit to the southern part of England, the UK PM said that the Conservative Party would protect workers of internet delivery firms and "gig" companies, such as Uber. Furthermore, May stated they intended to put employees on company boards. Apart from that, the British Prime Minister promised to increase the national living wage and introduce a new family care leave system. The current national living wage for workers aged 25 and over is 7.50 pounds.
Moreover, May said that if the nation votes for the Conservative Party it would also protect people with mental health problems. She also noted that she would use Brexit "to extend the protections and rights". Later on the day, the UK PM held her first Facebook Live session, during which the proposed policy was criticised for being unpaid. Moreover, the Liberal Party questioned the Conservatives' intentions and urged Britons not to trust the Tories.
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UK inflation versus US Housing data
A number of inflation data from the UK is due today. The most important one being the CPI, as it is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The Core CPI, however, excludes seasonally volatile products, such as food and energy, in order to capture an accurate calculation. Another important data release will be the UK PPI Output, which is a monthly measure of the price changes of goods produced by the UK manufacturers. A price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers, therefore, a positive reading is bullish for the GBP. As for the US side, the housing data is mostly due, such as the Building Permits, which show the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies movements of corporate investments and tends to cause some volatility to the USD. Another event worth paying attention to will be the USD Capacity Utilization Rate. It is the percentage of the US production capacity which is actually used over the short-timer period. It is indicative of overall growth and demand in the US economy. A high capacity utilization stimulates inflationary pressures.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
GBP/USD puts consolidation trend at risk
Monday ended with the Sterling once again being unable to post solid gains against the US Dollar, thus, prolonging its consolidation trend for another day. Nevertheless, the Cable has the opportunity to reach the trend's resistance line at 1.30 today and possibly even break it. Although technical indicators are in favour of the positive outcome, it still remains somewhat unlikely, as the Pound is eventually expected to test the wedge's lower boundary near 1.28. Assuming the pair consolidates until next week, a good confirmation of both trend supports would be achieved around 1.2850—where they coincide.
Daily chart
The Cable found support on Monday at the ascending channel's support line, which appears to have provided sufficient momentum; unless another U-turn occurs just after the 200-hour SMA gets pierced again. A successful close above this SMA is likely to confirm the outlook of the GBP/USD pair continuation to move towards the channel's resistance line.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain neutral
Market sentiment reached a perfect equilibrium today, while pending orders are close to that as well, with 51% of them set to sell the British currency.
A less optimistic situation is observed elsewhere. The sentiment at OANDA remains bearish, namely 61% of all open positions are short and the remaining 39% are long. Meanwhile, sentiment at Saxo Bank worsened again, with 60% of traders now being short and the other 40% - long on the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders still indecisive
© Dukascopy Bank SABy the end of the next three months traders believe the Cable is to rise above the 1.30 major level, as 59% of survey participants believe so. While the current price is around 1.29, the average forecast for August 16 is 1.3034. The 1.32-1.34 and the 1.34-1.36 ranges are now the most popular price intervals, having 16% of the votes each, while second comes the 1.30-1.32 interval with 12% of the voters, and the third place is tied by the 1.20-1.22, the 1.28-1.30 and the 1.36-1.38, with 10% of poll participants choosing either of these options.