- SWFX market sentiment is 60% bearish
- Trader pending orders are neutral
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.0904
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Upcoming Events: ECB Minimum Bid Rate; ECB Press Conference, US Core Durable Goods Orders; US Unemployment Claims; US Pending Home Sales
During the early hours of Thursday's trading session the EUR/USD remained almost unchanged, compared to the previous trading session. The reason for that is the fact that today is the day of the ECB Minimum Bid Rate announcement. From a technical perspective the currency exchange rate is located between two strong clusters of significance, which means that the markets might be waiting for the ECB information.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped more than experts estimated. In April, it lost 3.8% and reached 120.3, thus, marking the first decline since January. The fall was mainly attributable to the less optimistic view of business conditions and the labour market in the upcoming six months. As a result, the number of respondents, who evaluated business conditions as "good", decreased from 32.4% to 30.2% and the share of those, who assessed the available number of jobs in the market as "plentiful", plunged from 31.8% to 30.8%. In addition, the number of people who evaluated business conditions as "bad" increased slightly from 13.1% to 13.8%.
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Upcoming events: ECB and US data
Thursday is set to be a busy day for fundamental events. At the top of it all is the ECB rate announcement at 11:45 GMT and the following ECB press conference at 12:30 GMT. Simultaneously with the start of the conference the US Core Durable Goods Orders and Unemployment Claims data sets will be published in the US. Moreover, at 14:00 GMT the US Pending Home Sales data will be out. The ECB rate publication will be covered by the Dukascopy research tam on the live webinar.
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EUR/USD remains near 1.09 mark
On Thursday morning the common European currency remained near the 1.09 mark against the US Dollar. Previously, as it was forecasted, the currency exchange rate reached the cluster of support below it near the 1.0880 level and rebounded. Due to that factor a surge is to be expected. However, the upper Bollinger band is no longer located below the pair, and on Thursday was providing a hindering resistance near the 1.0920 level. Moreover, the pair is still set to struggle with the resistance put up by the upper trend line of the long term pattern at 1.0960.
Daily chart
The hourly chart reveals that the pair's rebound was stopped by the upper Bollinger band. However, the 20 and 55-hour SMAs are providing enough support to push the Euro higher against the US Dollar. Due to that reason it can be assumed that the currency pair will approach the long term ascending channel's upper trend line once more.Hourly chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Market sentiment strongly bearish
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 60% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, trader set up orders are neutral.
OANDA traders are bearish, as 62.45% of trader open positions are short on Thursday, compared to 64.92% previously. Moreover, SAXO bank clients also remain bearish, as 65.08% of open positions are short, compared to the 66.61% positions on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.08 by the end of July
© Dukascopy Bank SATraders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between March 27 and April 27 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.08 in the second half of July. In general, 53% (+3%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be above 1.08 in ninety days, and 22% (+1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 7% of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below.