- SWFX market sentiment is 51% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 54% bearish
- Pair opened Monday's session at 1.0586
- Upcoming Events: Chairwoman's of the Federal Reserve Speech
US private companies created less positions than expected last month; however, a fall in the jobless rate suggested that the labour market remained on a strong footing. The Labour Department reported on Friday that nonfarm payrolls rose 98,000 in March, compared to the previous month's downwardly revised gain of 219,000. Meanwhile, analysts expected the economy to add 174,000 new jobs during the reported period. According to economists, nonfarm employments was hit by the weather-related effects of the big storm that hit the Northeast and Midwest. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.5%, the lowest since May 2007, from 4.7% in February, while analysts anticipated an unchanged reading.
In order to keep up with growth in the US working age population, the economy needs to create at least 75,000 jobs each month. Job growth averaged 178,000 per month in the Q1 of 2017, suggesting that an expected 1.0% GDP rise for the Q1 could be temporary. Average hourly earnings advanced 0.2% in March, after climbing 0.3% in the prior month. Back in March, the Fed raised rates for the first time this year and promised two more hikes in 2017. With the economy expected to bounce back in the second quarter, analysts pegged June for the next rate hike.
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Upcoming events: Janet Yellen
The calendar is almost empty for the day, as only one event is notable enough to be mentioned. However, the event is the most important one, which could occur, as at 20:10 GMT Janet Yellen is set to give a speech. Most likely she will give clues regarding US monetary policy and cause fluctuations in the value of the US Dollar and subsequently the rest of the financial markets.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD falls below 1.06 mark
Daily Chart: On Monday morning the common European currency fluctuated rather flat against the US Dollar below the 1.06 level. It could be observed that the fall of the currency exchange rate is likely going to extend itself into a fourth consecutive trading session. The reason for that is the fact that the closest support to the currency exchange rate was a cluster near the 1.0550 mark, where the lower Bollinger band, weekly S1 and a long term trend line are located at. It can be expected that the pair reaches this cluster first, before rebounding.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Hourly chart: Although now it is of little use, a falling wedge pattern has been mapped on the hourly chart, which reveals how the rate moved from one long term trend line to another. It shows that the rate will fall to 1.0550 mark during the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, on the hourly chart it can be observed that it is the 20-hour SMA, which is pushing the rate to the before mentioned support cluster. However, there are no other moving resistance levels close by to the pair on the hourly chart.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
Markets with mixed views
SWFX traders still remain almost neutral, as 51% of open positions are long on Monday. Meanwhile, 54% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders remain in the bullish territory, as 59.67% of trader open positions are long on Monday, compared to 56.79% previously. Meanwhile, SAXO bank clients are no longer neutral, as 53.90% of open positions are long now, compared to the 50.73% short positions on Friday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.08 in July
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between March 10 and April 10 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.08 at the start of July. In general, 42% (-1%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.08 in ninety days, and 24% see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 9% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below. © Dukascopy Bank SA