- SWFX market sentiment is 63% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 53% to sell
- Pair opened Friday's session at 1.0782
- Upcoming Events: FOMC Member Evans's Speech; US Core Durable Goods Orders; US Durable Goods Orders
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, hitting the highest level over the past seven weeks, official figures revealed on Thursday. The US Department of Labour reported initial jobless claims rose by 15,000 to a total of 258,000 in the week ended March 17, up from the preceding week's upwardly revised reading of 243,000. In the meantime, market analysts expected unemployment claims to hit 240,000 during the reported week. Nevertheless, even despite the uptick in last week's claims, US labour market remained solid, with employers being slow to dismiss workers, as it becomes rather difficult to fill vacancies with experienced employees.
The February figure marked the 80th consecutive week of claims below 300,000, which is widely considered as a healthy jobs market. Apart from that, Thursday's report also featured yearly alterations for previously reported initial and continuing claims, with the latter benchmark dropping 39,000 to settle at 2M over the week ended March 10, while the unemployment rate among those eligible for jobless benefits managed to decline to 1.4% from the 1.5% reading registered previously.
Watch More: Dukascopy TV
Upcoming events: Evans speaks and Durable Goods Orders
This week will end with two minor events in the US, that are unlikely set to influence the financial markets not more than by causing minor volatility. First of all FOMC member Evans will give a speech at 12:00 GMT. Secondly, at 12:30 GMT the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data will be published. This data release will be covered on the online webinar by the Dukascopy research team.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD continues to decline on Friday
Daily Chart: On Friday morning the common European currency traded against the US Dollar near the support, provided by the monthly R1, at the 1.0772 level. The currency exchange rate was still undecided on its course during the day, as the rate bounced around the mentioned level of significance. Traders are advised to watch out for a break to the upside, as it is forecasted by various market analysts, which means that bullish bias is set to prevail. However, the direction is most likely going to be set by the fundamentally important US healthcare vote.Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that this whole time the currency exchange rate was in a slightly tilted channel down pattern on the hourly chart. That channel is aimed at the lower trend line of the medium term ascending channel, and it might actually represent the currency pair's rebound from the upper trend line of the channel.
Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA
Read More: Technical Analysis
Markets remain bearish
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 63% of open positions are short on Friday. Meanwhile, 53% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders are also still bearish, as 59.91% of trader open positions are short on Friday, compared to 60.56% positions previously. In addition, SAXO bank clients also remain on the bearish side, as 58.91% of open positions are short, compared to 62.25% on Thursday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.06 in April
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between February 24 and March 24 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.06 by the start of April. In general, 53% (+2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.06 in ninety days, and 19% (+1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 17% of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below. © Dukascopy Bank SA