- All pending orders are equally divided between the buy and the sell ones
- Traders' sentiment remains bullish at 62%
- Immediate resistance is around 1.2670
- The closest support is at 1.2537
- Upcoming Events: US Initial Jobless Claims, US Wholesale Inventories, BoE Governor Carney's Speech, UK Manufacturing Production, UK Goods Trade Balance, UK Industrial Production, UK NIESR GDP Estimate
House prices in the United Kingdom dropped unexpectedly last month, official figures revealed on Tuesday. Halifax reported its House Price Index, the longest running monthly house price measure, plunged 0.6% in January, following the preceding month's downwardly revised increase of 1.6%, while market analysts expected house prices to grow at a 0.2% pace in the reported month. The January figure marked the first monthly decline since the Brexit vote. On an annual basis, prices climbed 5.7% last month, down from December's 6.5% and below economists' forecasts. In a report, Halifax said that a lack of properties for sale, low interest rates and slow building activity would push house prices higher in the upcoming months.
However, it also stated that subdued economic growth and rising pressure on consumer spending could probably weaken house price growth. In January, the average house price was 220,260 pounds. Last week, the British mortgage lender Nationwide said the average house price rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in January, following the previous month's 0.8% increase. Year-over-year, house prices grew at a 4.3% pace last month, the weakest since November 2015, compared to the December increase of 4.3%. According to Nationwide, the housing market would lose some momentum going forward.
No important events until Friday
This whole weak is quiet in terms of fundamental data releases, leaving the main ones to be released on Friday. First of all the UK Manufacturing Production, which measures the manufacturing output. It is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of the UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. Similarly, Industrial Production measures outputs of the UK factories and mines. Changes in Industrial Production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. From the US side attention could be paid to the Import Price Index. It informs the changes in the price of imported products into the US. The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation, redunding in a higher probability of a rate rise. However, concerning Thursday, the BoE's Governor is scheduled to speak today, whose words could have an impact on the GBP crosses.
GBP/USD continues to consolidate
Yesterday the GBP/USD currency pair successfully climbed over the immediate resistance, namely the weekly PP, but just barely. Overall, the Cable appears to have entered a consolidation phase, with the tough demand cluster supporting the pair from below around 1.2440 and the 23.60% Fibo providing resistance at 1.2672. This means the Sterling has relatively a lot of room for further upside developments, even though the exchange rate keeps gravitating to the downside. Technical studies are unable to confirm any possible direction today, while risks are believed to be skewed to the upside, as the 20-day SMA recently provided a purchase signal.
Daily chart
The Cable once again approached the 200-hour SMA yesterday, even making a couple of attempts to climb over it. A successful attempt was seen today, but it is uncertain whether this GBP/USD pair will be able to maintain trade above the given SMA, as the exchange rate keeps returning under the 1.25 handle. Ultimately, we believe the Dec 2016 high is to be reached by the end of the month.
Hourly chart
Traders mostly bullish
Traders' sentiment remains bullish at 62% today, while all pending orders became equally divided between the buy and the sell ones.
A slightly less optimistic situation is observed elsewhere. For example, 61% of positions open at OANDA are currently long. This is more than the share of shorts (39%), barely sufficient for the sentiment to be called bullish. Meanwhile, sentiment at Saxo Bank is also bullish, with 54% of traders now being long and the other 46% being short the Sterling against the US Dollar.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders expect the Cable to keep falling
By the end of the next three months traders expect the Cable to rise above the 1.22 major level, as 51% of survey participants believe so. While the current price is around 1.25, the average forecast for May 09 is 1.2324. However, the 1.14-1.16 interval is now the most popular one, having 15% of the votes, while on the second place is the 1.20-1.22 price range, with 13% of poll participants choosing it. Furthermore, the 1.16-1.18, 1.18-1.20, 1.26-1.28 and the 1.30-1.32 intervals were each chosen by 11% of the voters.