- 52% of all SWFX open positions are long
- The yellow metal's price is being dictated by US politics
- In the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election gold has been falling
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: All empty on the economic calendars
Mood of Americans shoppers improved more than expected in November, after falling to its lowest level since 2014 in the previous month, a flash survey showed on Friday. The Consumer Sentiment Index produced by the University of Michigan came in at 91.6, up from October's final reading of 87.2, while market analysts anticipated s slight acceleration to 87.4 points. The survey was conducted before the results of the US presidential elections were announced. Furthermore, the Index was 0.3% higher than at the same time last year, and surpassed the current year's average of 91.1 points. Meanwhile, the sub-gauge of current economic conditions advanced 2.6% to 105.9, and the sub-gauge of future expectations increased 7.4% to 82.5 from the prior month's 76.8 points. Consumer sentiment managed to improve in November, even though long-term and short-term inflation expectations climbed to 2.7%, after touching a record low of 2.4% in October. Richard Curtin, chief economist of the survey, said that it may be a one-month phenomenon. Nevertheless, he added that the November data may be enough to justify a December rate hike. The EUR/USD pair fell immediately to 1.0872 from 1.0873 ahead of the release.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment aid dropped more than expect last week, official figures showed on Thursday. According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims fell 11,000 to 254,000 in the week ended November 4, down from the preceding week's 267,000 filings, while market analysts anticipated an increase of 2,000 to 267,000. This marked the 88th week of initial claims below the 300,000 level, the longest streak since 1973. The four-week moving average of claims increased 1,750 to 259,750 in the reported week. Thursday's data also showed that continuing claims grew 18,000 to 2,041,000 in the week ending October 29, whereas their four-week moving average declined to 2,039,500, the lowest level since July of 2000. After the release, the EUR/USD pair fell 0.09% to 1.0902, whereas it touched its highest level of 1.1298 on Wednesday after the results of the presidential race were announced. Last week's initial jobless claims together with the NFP report released on Friday have strengthened odds for a December rate hike, despite Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US Presidential elections, which sent shockwaves across the world.
Upcoming fundamentals: Empty economic calendar
The economic calendars show no data releases or events, which could actually affect the yellow metal hard enough to cause fluctuations. However, we would highly suggest for any trade, who trades gold, to watch information coming out of the US, as Donald Trump might surprise the markets at any moment.
Gold on its way down to 1,200 level
Daily chart: The yellow metal continued to fall on early Monday morning, as the US Dollar continued to gain strength in the aftermath of the previous week's US presidential election outcome. Previously, during Friday's trading session the bullion fell 2.6% and ended the day's session at 1,225.96. On Monday the metal had no near support, which could stop its fall, as the closes support levels were located near the 1,200 level. Near the 1,200 mark the second monthly support is located at 1,200.77 and the May low level is at 1199.58.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for gold reveals that the 1,250 level held out for a long time, before the support provided by it failed, as there were three attempts to move through it. Moreover, during the attempts the yellow metal's price lost almost all volatility, as the price got deadlocked between the 1,250 and the 20-hour SMA. Although, at 14:00 GMT the support level was broken, and by 15:00 GMT the bullion traded not only below the 1,250, but also the monthly S1. Since then, the commodity price has been on its way to the 1,200 mark.
Hourly chart
Traders remain bearish
OANDA open long positions have slightly decreased and are at 76.97%, compared to 78.17% on Friday. SAXO bank traders remain long, and have decreased their bullish outlook, as 67.28% of traders were long on Monday morning, compared to 71.90% during the previous session.