- 52% of all SWFX open positions are long
- The yellow metal traded in a short term ascending channel for almost a month
- The recent surge was caused by the US presidential election
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate
US manufacturing activity grew for the second consecutive month in October, official data showed on Tuesday. The Institute for Supply Management said its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index jumped to 51.9 points in October, following the preceding month's reading of 51.5 and surpassing the 51.8 market forecast. The October growth was mainly driven by a rise in production and hiring. Any reading above the 50 point level 50 indicates an expansion in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 12% of the US economy. Meanwhile, the Production Index rose 1.8% to 54.6 points, while the New Orders Index dropped to 52.1 from the previous month's 55.1 and the Employment Index increased 3.2% to 52.9 during the reported period. The Export Orders Index rose slightly to 52.5 from the prior month's figure of 52. Analysts widely expect manufacturing activity to pick up in the Q4. The US manufacturing sector was hit by the strong US Dollar between June 2014 and December 2015, as the appreciation of the Greenback hampered US exports. The Federal Reserve began a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and it is unlikely to raise interest rates at this meeting ahead of the presidential election on November 8. However, analysts widely anticipate a December rate hike.
Consumer spending in the United States increased more than expected last month amid higher purchases of motor vehicles and higher inflation, official data revealed on Monday. According to the US Department of Commerce, consumer spending jumped 0.5% in September, following the preceding month's downwardly revised fall of 0.1% and meeting analysts' expectations. When adjusting for inflation, Monday's report showed consumer spending advanced 0.3% in the reported month after dropping 0.2% in August. In the meantime, the PCE Price Index grew 0.2% in September, the same pace as in the previous month. Year-over-year, the Index climbed 1.2%, the largest annual gain since November 2014, up from August's gain of 1.0%. Furthermore, the so-called core PCE Index increased 0.1% in the same month, compared to the 0.2% rise registered in August. On an annual basis, the core PCE Index advanced 1.7%, the similar increase in the preceding month. Officials from the US Federal Reserve meet for two days this week, starting Tuesday, to discuss. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates at that meeting ahead of the presidential election; however, analysts widely anticipate a rate hike in December. Back in September, the Fed held rates steady for the sixth straight meeting.
Upcoming fundamentals: US employment and the FED
It is a 100% certainty that the data coming from the US during today's trading session will affect the strength of the US Dollar, which will affect most financial prices. First of all at 12:15 GMT the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be published. However, that is a minor event if compared with what will occur later in the day. At 18:00 GMT the FOMC Statement and the Federal Funds Rate will be announced.
US elections propel gold higher
Daily chart: The yellow metal continued to surge on Wednesday's morning, as it broke out of the ascending channel pattern, in which it had been trading since the start of October. The metal's movements most recently have been dictated by the US presidential election pols than rather fundamentals. As the gap between the candidates closes, financial funds flow into safe investments like gold to hedge themselves from the uncertainty and possible fluctuations. However, regarding today, traders can expect the bullion to surge up to the 1,296.73 level, where the next resistance is located at.Daily chart
Hourly chart: By looking on the hourly chart, it can be seen that the first weekly resistance did not even manage to slow down the bullion's surge a little bit. However, the ascending channel's upper trend line proved to be a difficult opponent, as it kept the commodity price flat for almost 12 hours. Although the resistance was broken, and the metal is moving further northwards to face the weekly R2.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment almost neutral
During the weekend OANDA open long positions have decreased to 73.77%, compared to 74.89% on Monday. SAXO bank traders remain long, but have largely decreased their long positions, as 59.13% of traders are long, compared to 68.44% during the previous trading session.