- 57% of all SWFX open positions are long
- The yellow metal recently formed a short term ascending channel
- The 1,250 psychological level provided support for a week
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: FOMC Member Dudley Speaks; FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
Manufacturing activity dropped less than expected in the Third Federal Reserve District, a monthly report revealed on Thursday. The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Index came in at 9.7 in October, compared to last month's 12.8, while market analysts anticipated a steeper decrease to 5.2 during the reported period. However, the three-month average rose to 8.2 in October from the previous month's 2.7 points. Furthermore, the six-month outlook advanced to 38.6 from September's 35.2. Other data released by the US Department of Labor showed the number first-time claims for state unemployment benefits increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 260,000 in the week ended October 15, following the preceding week's upwardly revised figure of 247,000 and falling behind the 251,000 market forecast. Filings for US unemployment benefits remained below the 300,000 level for the 85th consecutive week, the longest streak since 1973. The increase in initial claims was partly due to Hurricane Matthew, which caused flooding and damage in the Southeast region. The four-week moving average, considered as a better measure of labor market trends, jumped 2,250 to 251,750 last week. Moreover, continuous claims rose 7,000 to 2.06 million in the week ending October 8.
US housing starts dropped unexpectedly last month, whereas building permits rose more than expected, official figures revealed on Wednesday. According to the US Department of Commerce, the total number of housing starts issued fell 9.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.05 million in September, hitting the lowest level since March 2015, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 1.18 million units during the reported period. August's housing starts were revised up to a 1.15 million rate from the originally reported pace of 1.14 million starts. US single-family starts, which account for the largest segment of the market, climbed 8.1% to a 783,000 unit pace last month, the highest reading since February. The drop was mainly driven by the volatile multi-family segment, which posted a 38.0% decline to 264,000 unit pace in September. In the meantime, building permits advanced 6.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.23 million in the same month, following August's upwardly revised reading of 1.15 million permits and surpassing the 1.17 million unit pace market forecast. Building activity is set to rebound in the coming months as building permit values remained strong, with single-family and multi-family permits rising 0.4% and 16.8% in September.
Upcoming fundamentals: FOMC speakers and no data
The strength of the US Dollar and subsequently Gold prices on Monday will not be affected by any data release. However, there are two members of the FOMC set to speak during the day almost at the same time. At 13:00 GMT Dudley gives a speech, and at 13:05 Bullard is set to speak.
Gold remains unchanged at 1,265
Daily chart: The yellow metal remained unchanged at 1,265 on Monday morning. Previously, on Friday, the bullion saw some volatility and was more volatile to the upside. However, the metal's price almost did not change during the previous session, as both support and resistance are strong and keep the commodity squeezed in. On Monday, the 200-day SMA, which provided significant resistance on Friday, has moved higher and provides more room for the bullion. Although, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast that the metal's price will remain unchanged by the end of the day and even the week.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for gold reveals that the yellow metal has been prepped up until Monday's 01:00 GMT by the 100-hour SMA, which sent the bullion higher more than once. However, the yellow metal each time was sent back down by the 55-hour SMA. The fluctuations stopped, as both simple moving averages neared one to another, and the 55-hour SMA came out as victorious and sent the metal down to smash against the newly formed weekly PP, where it found support and rebounded.
Hourly chart
Trader sentiment remains unchanged
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients remain majorly bullish with respect to the bullion, as on Monday morning 77.60% of all positions were long. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients show a similar trend with 66.78% of all positions being held by bulls.