- Buy and sell orders they take up 51% and 49% of the market, respectively
- 52% of traders have a negative outlook towards the Sterling
- The nearest support is around 1.31
- Immediate resistance is at 1.3152
- 50% of traders reckon GBP/USD will be at 1.30 or lower in three months
- Upcoming events: UK Manufacturing PMI, US Jobless Claims, US Revised Nonfarm Productivity, US Markit and ISM Manufacturing PMIs, US Construction Spending
Confidence among American shoppers improved unexpectedly in August, according to the Conference Board's monthly survey. The survey's Consumer Confidence Index increased to 101.1 points in the eight month of the year, compared to July's reading of 96.7, while market analysts anticipated a slighter acceleration to 97.1 in the reported month. Nevertheless, back in August 2015, the indicator was higher at 101.4 points. The survey is a closely-followed barometer of consumer attitudes towards business conditions, personal finances, jobs and short-term outlook. The data showed that 30% of respondents stated that business conditions were "good" in August, following July's 27.3%, whereas 18.4% stated conditions were "bad", unchanged from last month. 17.3% of respondents predicted an improvement in the next six months, compared to last month's 15.7%, while 11.1% predicted deterioration, down from July's 12.4%. The share of respondents expecting their incomes to improve remained resilient; however, the outlook on the job market was mixed.
Consumer sentiment among Americans remained in the positive territory for more than a year. A reading of 90 or above indicates economic expansion. The US economy is mostly driven by consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of all economic growth.
UK and US Manufacturing PMI's to be the main Cable drivers
Today is a day of Manufacturing PMIs. From the UK side, the Manufacturing PMI is released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics. It captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the UK or the US, respectively. The US Manufacturing PMI, however, is divided into two, the Markit one and the ISM one. Another event to pay attention to could be the US Nonfarm Productivity, which shows the output per hour of labor worked. Nonfarm Productivity indicates the overall business health in the US, which has an influence on the GDP.
GBP/USD poised for more gains
The British currency managed to outperform the Greenback on Wednesday, not only retaking the 1.31 level, but also negating Monday's and Tuesday's losses. Gains were limited by the immediate resistance, which could cause the Pound to retreat today. However, technical indicators suggest otherwise, as they retain bullish signals. In case the bullish momentum prevails, the pair could reclaim the 1.32 level. The second closest resistance area is likely to remain out of reach, as there no impetus today is expected to push the Cable beyond 1.3250.
Daily chart
The GBP/USD currency pair's bullish potential was limited by the 200-hour SMA yesterday, with the pair approaching a possible down-trend early today. If bears prevail, the trend-line will be confirmed and will become a viable resistance in the upcoming days.
Hourly chart
Still no consensus
There are 52% of traders with a negative outlook towards the Sterling, unchanged since yesterday. The share of buy and sell orders barely changed, as they take up 51% and 49% of the market, respectively.
Indecision appears to be widespread, as the same neutral sentiment is observed among the traders of other brokers. At OANDA, 54% of positions are long and 46% are short. The sentiment at Saxo Bank remains mostly neutral, as the numbers of longs and shorts each take up 52% and 48% of the market, respectively.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Majority sees the GBP/USD below 1.30 in three months
Exactly half of traders (50%) believe the British currency is to cost 1.30 or less dollars after a three-month period. The most popular price intervals, however, were the 1.26-1.28 and the 1.34-1.36 ones, both selected by 14% of the voters. The second most popular choice implies that the Sterling is to cost between 1.36 and 1.38 dollars in three months, chosen by 13% of the surveyed. At the same time, the mean forecast for Dec 01 is 1.3078.