- SWFX market sentiment is 59% bearish
- Trader set up pending orders are 53% short
- Pair opened Thursday's session at the 1.1176 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will surge
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Initial Jobless Claims (August 6); US Import Price Index (July)
The number of job openings in the United States increased more than expected during the sixth month of the year, official data showed on Wednesday. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of positions waiting to be filled rose to 5.62 million in June, following last month's upwardly revised figure of 5.51 million. Market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 5.52 million in the reported month. Furthermore, there were 5.1 million hires and 4.9 million separations with 2.9 million quits in June. The JOLTS report is closely followed by Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, who often cites it when assessing the state of the labour market. US crude oil inventories rose for the third consecutive week, surpassing analysts' expectations, the weekly report from the Energy Information Administration revealed on Wednesday. US commercial crude inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels in the week ended August 5, following the 1.4 million barrel rise posted in the previous seven days. Meanwhile, markets expected a decrease of 1.3 million barrels in the reported period. Recently, the International Energy Agency revised up significantly its 2017 global oil demand growth forecast to 97.4 million barrels per day, whereas the World Bank downgraded its 2016 global growth forecast to 2.4% from January's 2.9%.
Germany's trade surplus rose more than expected in the month of the EU referendum, fresh figures from the Federal Statistical Office revealed on Tuesday. The trade surplus in the Euro zone's largest economy grew to 24.9 billion euro in June, compared to May's 21.0 billion euro surplus, whereas market analysts pencilled in an increase to 23.8 billion euro in the reported month. German exports grew 0.3% on a monthly basis in the sixth month of the year, following the preceding month's 1.8% drop. Nevertheless, economic desks anticipated an acceleration of 1.3% in the reported period. Meanwhile, German imports advanced 1.0% during the first month of summer after rising just 0.1% in May, whereas markets expected a 1.3% increase. Other data released by the Federal Statistical Office on the same day showed that the German current account, a measure of the country's balance payments with the rest of the world, rose to 26.3 billion euros in June from the preceding month's upwardly revised figure of 18.4 billion euros, whereas economic desks predicted a slight increase to 20.9 billion euros in the reported period.
Upcoming fundamentals: US jobless claims and import prices
The EUR/USD pair on Thursday will be affected from the side of the US, as two data releases are set for the day. US Initial Jobless Claims for August 6 are forecasted to be at 264,000 this week. In the meantime, US Import Price Index for July will be published today, and it is forecasted to be a negative 0.2%. Both data releases will happen at the same time, at exactly 12:30 GMT.
EUR/USD around 1.1170 on Thursday morning
Daily chart: The common European currency surged to 1.1176 against the US Dollar on Wednesday, and on Thursday morning the rate had slightly retreated, as by 5:00 GMT the currency exchange rate was at 1.1170. However, during the morning, the currency pair had fluctuated more to the upside and almost touched the weekly R1 at 1.1197, which might have provided the upside pressure, which made the EUR/USD pair change its direction. As the Euro depreciates against the Buck, it is most likely to find support in the 55-day SMA at 1.1150.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that the Euro surged against the Greenback in the past 24 hours. However, the currency exchange rate three times changed direction after reaching the upper Bollinger band, as it bounced off it at 2:00, 9:00 and 22:00 GMT on August 10. Every time, after a slight hinder of the surge, the pair rebounded by finding support either in the 200 or 20-hour SMAs. Although at 3:00 GMT the currency rate has moved below the 20-hour SMA and moved on to the lower Bollinger band.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment unchanged on Thursday
OANDA trader bearish sentiment has increased compared to Wednesday's 58.10%, as, at the moment, 60.29% of OANDA open positions are short. In the meantime, SAXO Bank clients have increased their bearish stance, as their open short positions are now at 67.79% compared to 64.41% of last trading session.