- 51% of all SWFX open positions are short on Monday
- Prices fell to 1,335 level on Friday
- The downward move was caused by US Non-Farm Payrolls data
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Labor Market Conditions Index (July)
The US non-farm sector created more jobs than expected last month, whereas the unemployment rate remained unchanged, fresh data from the Department of Labor showed on Friday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) increased by 255,000 in July, while market analysts expected the sector to add just 181,000 jobs in the reported period. Meanwhile, the preceding month's figure was revised up to 292,000 from the originally reported reading of 287,000. Furthermore, the headline jobless rate came in at 4.9% in July, in line with last month's figure, whereas economic desks pencilled in a slight deceleration to 4.8%. The report also revealed that average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis in July, following the 0.1% increase registered in June, while economists anticipated the indicator to come in at 0.2% in the reported month. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings remained steady at 2.6%, meeting analysts' projections. The NFP report provides important insights into the health of the US economy and offers some clues to the path of future rate hikes. Back in 2012, the Federal Reserve set an unemployment target of 6.5%.
As markets expected, the Bank of England (BoE) introduced a range of additional monetary policy measures and upgraded its growth and inflation forecasts at its August meeting on Thursday amid Britain's decision to leave the European Union. All nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted anonymously to cut the main lending rate to a record low 0.25% from 0.50%. Furthermore, the central bank expanded its quantitative easing (QE) programme to 435 billion pound from 375 billion pound, while markets expected the BoE to leave its QE scheme unchanged. Three of nine policymakers voted unanimously against the decision. The latest batch of surveys showed that the UK economy contracted at its steepest pace and may even slip into recession following the Brexit vote, however, the BoE kept its 2016 economic growth forecast unchanged at 2.0%, as the UK economy had a stronger than expected performance in the first half of the year. Nevertheless, the central bank lowered its 2017 growth forecast to 0.8% from an earlier estimate of 2.3%, while the 2018 estimates were slashed to 1.8%. Moreover, the BoE increased its 2018-2019 inflation forecast to 2.4% amid weakness in the Sterling.
Upcoming fundamentals: US Labor Market Conditions Index
On another quiet Monday gold prices will be affected by the US Labor Market Conditions Index for July. The data will be released at 14:00 GMT, and previously it was an index of negative 1.9.
Gold touches 1,331 level on Monday
Daily chart: The yellow metal fell sharply on Friday, as the bullion erased all gains of the previous week. The metal fell from 1,360 at the start of day's trading session and ended day's trading at 1,335. On Monday morning the commodity has moved slightly up, as it was trading at 1,337.08 by 5:45 GMT. In addition, the metal had been volatile by that point, as it had touched the 1,331 level during Monday's trading session.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart shows that gold was trading flat until 12:00 GMT on Friday, as the commodity price fluctuated around the 1,361 level. However, at 12:30 GMT US Non-farm Payrolls data was released, which turned out to be a lot higher than expected, and, as the bullion prices are affected by the strength of the US Dollar, the bullion fell to 1,338.25 by 15:00 GMT on Friday. Since then, the metal has stayed almost flat, as gold traded at 1,335.80 by 6:15 GMT on Monday.
Hourly chart
SWFX traders almost neutral on Monday
Meanwhile, OANDA Bank clients are bullish with respect to the bullion, precisely in 63.84%. In the meantime, SAXO bank clients are slightly less bullish on the yellow metal, as 62.31% of positions are long.