- Portion of SWFX bulls increased from 70% to 74% by Wed morning
- Key bearish focus remains on July low at 1,070 as no consolidation below it has taken place so far
- Aggregate daily technical indicators expect gold to lose value in the next 24 hours
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: French Consumer Confidence (Nov); Italian Industrial Sales and Orders (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep); US Durable Goods Orders (Oct), Personal Income (Oct), Personal Spending (Oct), Services PMI (Nov), New Home Sales (Oct) and Crude Oil Inventories (Nov 20); UK BBA Mortgage Approvals; UK Autumn Forecast Statement; New Zealand Trade Balance (Oct)
Gold rose for a second day on Wednesday amid escalating political tensions between Russia and Turkey after a Russian fighter jet was shot down. However, the precious metal remained under pressure from expectations the Fed will raise interest rates next month, particularly after a positive GDP data release earlier in the week. The world's number one economy grew faster in the third quarter than originally estimated. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.1% annualized rate, compared with the initial reading of 1.5%, according to the Commerce Department. The consumer spending was the biggest contributor to growth as cheap gasoline and greater job security give more confidence to spend.
The world's number one economy grew faster in the third quarter than originally estimated. Gross domestic product rose at a 2.1% annualized rate, compared with the initial reading of 1.5%, according to the Commerce Department. The consumer spending was the biggest contributor to growth as cheap gasoline and greater job security gave more confidence to spend. Household consumption, which makes up almost 70% of the economy, grew at a 3% annualized rate, slightly less than the previously estimated 3.2%. The final release of GDP data for the third quarter is scheduled for late December. Steady growth in the world's largest economy helps to create jobs and push down the unemployment rate, which Fed policy makers are watching as a gauge of how much slack is left in the labour market. Fed officials are considering hiking the benchmark interest rate as soon as next month, if data continue to indicate that the US economy can weather tighter monetary policy.
Construction activity in Australia dropped at the fastest pace in almost four years last quarter after increasing for the first time in more than a year in the second quarter. The total value of construction activity, including building and engineering work, plunged by 3.6% to $49.04 billion in the three months through September, compared with economists' projections of a 2% decline. The main driver for the negative result was the precipitous drop in engineering work, including mines, roads and bridges, which plummeted 7.3% in the reported period. Measured on an annual basis, the amount of construction work done was down 3.7%. Over the past year engineering work plunged 11.7%, as mining investment wanes. The data signalled that there was still plenty of momentum in housing construction, yet the sharp decline in engineering work meant construction was a drag on the Australian economy growth last quarter.
Upcoming fundamentals: UK Government to announce spending changes
Upcoming fundamentals: UK Government to announce spending changes On Wednesday the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne will present the annual Autumn Forecast Statement at 12:30 GMT. Following attacks in Paris, the British government is intended to lift up defence spending, while additional cuts may be attributed to police force, environment and transport. Meantime, American durable goods orders and personal spending/income are out at 13:30 GMT today. Orders for long-term use items are expected to rebound by 0.5% in October on a core basis after a drop of 0.3% in September. Alongside, the headline reading has probably expanded by 1.6%, following -1.2% in September. Estimates for personal spending and wages are relatively positive, with both forecasted to register a healthy increase of 0.3-0.4% in October.
Gold's rally may extend beyond 1,080 on Wednesday
The precious metal's development was subdued in course of Tuesday, with no strong impetus provided by any of American statistical data. On the other hand, political tensions between Russia and Turkey might give the safe-haven metal a reason for growth. The rally is being extended through Wednesday, with the bulls aiming at weekly PP (1,080). Closure and consequent consolidation above this mark should refocus market attention to 1,100 (monthly S1). Medium term outlook, however, expects a confident confirmation of July low from the metal's side.Daily chart
While present gains are likely to be contained by the weekly PP at 1,080, in the one-hour chart another supply is represented by Nov 16-20 downward-sloping trend-line. Negative pressure remains substantial as it comes from 200-hour SMA 1,077. Previously, the bullion failed to consolidate above the moving average on Nov 16 and Nov 20.
Hourly chart
SWFX bulls secure at least 70% of the market
The yellow metal is overbought in both OANDA and SAXO Bank markets. The former's clients are holding 76.12% of bullish open trades, while SAXO Bank traders are long in 73.55% of all cases. Bears may benefit from this distribution and try entering the market with fresh positions.