- Share of long pending orders in 100-pip range amounts to 48%
- Market sentiment is neutral at the moment
- Bulls hope to get support from moving averages around 1.1150
- Intermediate demand is represented by weekly S1 at 1.1183
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: US Housing Price Index (Jul); FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks
German factory gate prices contracted for a 25th consecutive month in August on an annualised basis, falling more than market's expectations. According to Destatis, the headline annual PPI in Germany was a negative 1.7% in the reported month, following the 1.3% drop posted in July and missing the estimate of 1.6% decline. On a monthly basis, the gauge fell 0.5% in August after a flat print in the prior month. The reading was predicted to show a negative 0.3% result. Concerning the product categories, in August energy prices decreased by 5.0%, prices of non-durable consumer goods and intermediate goods contracted by more than 1% annually. In contrast, prices of capital goods rose by 0.8% and prices of durable consumer goods climbed by 1.4%. The weak figures from Germany's economic powerhouse only underscore the fragility of economic recovery in the Euro zone.
In the meantime, the Bundesbank said in its Monday's report that undeterred by global uncertainties and economic slowdown in China, German growth is expected to continue in the second half of the year on rising domestic consumption and growing exports. The Buba expects the German economy to expand by 1.7% in 2015, while Berlin predicts that GDP will rise 1.8% this year.
Upcoming fundamentals: Fed's Lockhart to speak again on Tuesday
After speaking on Monday, the Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is going to share his views with public today at the Alabama World Affairs Council in Montgomery. Yesterday, Lockhart underlined solid performance of the US economy. He stressed his readiness to vote in favour of increasing interest rates this year, also saying that he anticipates a gradual path of monetary policy normalization. Meanwhile, the US Housing Price Index is due at 13:00 GMT today, with analysts looking for a 0.4% month-on-month increase in July after a rise of 0.2% in the preceding month.
EUR/USD prolongs a decline below 1.12
EUR/USD was rejected by the weekly pivot point on Monday and was forced to capitulate below the 1.12 mark. After piercing through the 50% Fibonacci retracement of Jul-Aug uptrend and 20-day SMA, the only support was offered by the weekly S1 at 1.1183. Despite that, we are looking at the next demand zone around 30 pips below the spot price. A slide below the 61.8% retracement and 55/100-day SMAs should allow a further downward move to the 200-day SMA at 1.1083.Daily chart
EUR/USD failed to hold above the 200-hour SMA, currently at 1.1296. Our outlook with respect to the pair has therefore deteriorated significantly in the past 24 hours. Bulls should look at the 1.1155/45 cluster of important levels, but bears are highly likely to attempt pushing the cross even lower.
Hourly chart
SWFX open positions are distributed equally between bulls and bears
Meanwhile, the total number of bullish positions at OANDA surged from 44.53% to 47.19% yesterday, while SAXO Bank traders are still remaining quite pessimistic with respect to the common currency as their portion of the longs takes up only 37% of all open trades.