I would not agree with this point of view. We just went through one of the longest bear markets for about six years long, with negative interest rates in about 35% of the countries worldwide which is a part of gold prices.
I do not think it will continue at the pace that we saw in the Q1, because if we had big impact from constructions, it seems to be seasonal.
At this stance, we do expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in June and we anticipate another rate hike of another 25 basis points in December this year.
The most effective option for the Japanese economy is the suspending the consumption tax increase (scheduled for April, 2017)
Overall, Argentina is not the economy we follow that closely; however, as concerns Brazil, we have seen quite a large rally in Brazilian assets on expectations that Rousseff is going to be impeached.
I do not think that oil is going to fall below $30 per barrel, that would be too bearish; however, I would not be surprised to see some pullbacks in prices, perhaps to below $40.
The fundamentals in silver are looking a little bit better and there are a lot of production cutbacks coming in.
The US economy has slowed down a lot in the Q4 of 2015 and in the Q1 of 2016, and I do not expect much rebound in the Q2
Recently, the World Bank revised downwards its forecast for Russia's economic growth for the year 2016, predicting the Russian economy will shrink by 1.9% instead of the 0.7% due to weaker oil market. In your opinion, is there a possibility that the Russian economic growth this year will surpass these expectations and will register a better result?To my mind, it
Over the course of the next quarter we see the Euro trading lower, down to around 1.02-1.03 against the US Dollar.
At the current moment, the RBNZ is highly concerned in particular with respect to the dairy sector, as dairy prices continue to tumble.
With uncertainties over the EU referendum and global economy, the next quarter will be a challenging one for the financial services sector. Banks in particular are highlighting what a difficult position they find themselves in. Analysts believe that these uncertainties seem sure to last until at least June 23, when the UK population will vote on whether to stay in
I think the more extreme versions of the "secular stagnation" seem do not apply to the UK. We still have some economic growth.
I think one should compare the Swiss Franc with the Euro and definitely look at this pair's exchange rate, because it is the one which matters from the monetary policy perspective.
To my mind, the performance of the Loonie in the Q2 will depend mainly on what will happen to oil prices. What we have seen in the Q1 is that a lot of a rebound in the value of the Canadian Dollar has been driven by the rebound in oil prices.
For the second quarter I would imagine that Pound will probably come with sustained pressure, as it had a bit of retrieved risk of it due to the pressure of the Dollar.
To your mind, will the economy grow strong enough this year to push unemployment down and begin to pull inflation up to the Fed's 2% target? What performance do you expect to see from the US economy?For the first part of the year we would not expect the US economy to head into recession, which has been a fear as
To my mind, it is an important complement to monetary policy that has proposed a lot of stimulus to the economy.
I believe that in a first instance it will indeed be very negative: not as negative as for the UK itself, though. According to the research we have conducted within ING, we believe that there will be some demand shock in the UK and, as a result, depreciation of the Pound Sterling.
Recently, we saw disappointing CPI data for the Euro zone, as it fell for the first time since September 2015. In your opinion, what can be done to reverse this negative trend? Do you see extension of the QE program by the ECB in their next meeting?In terms of inflation, of course, a big part of downward pressure is due
For the City it could mean a loss of some businesses to Europe, if we do leave the EU.
We would broadly agree with that, as the UK cycle matures, growth is slowing towards its long term sustainable level of around 2%.
In my opinion, it is possible; however, that would require rather significant changes in policy making, and it will take quite a long time for these changes to start having effect.
China is attempting to shift away from an export-driven and investment-led economy to a more balanced consumption-oriented one. To achieve its goals and double GDP from 2010 levels, the Chinese leadership has set out on an extensive reform agenda. This includes further financial market liberalisation and state-owned enterprise, fiscal, and rural land reform. What will be the major risks for