- 53% of all SWFX open positions are long
- 57% of pending commands were to buy the metal
- The bullion opened at 1,202.38
- Upcoming Events: US Empire State Manufacturing Index; DOMC Member Dudley Speaks; US Treasury Secretary Lew Speaks; FOMC Member Brainard Speaks; WEF Day One
US retail sales rose more than expected last month amid higher demand for furniture and automobiles, figures showed on Friday. According to the Department of Commerce, retail sales advanced 0.6% in December, following the preceding month's upwardly revised 0.2% gain and surpassing analysts expectations for an increase of 0.5%. The following increase provided further evidence that the US economy gained momentum in the last three months of 2016. In addition, retail sales grew 4.1% on annual basis and 3.3% over the past year. Sales of automobiles contributed most to this increase, jumping 2.4%.Excluding volatile items, sales climbed 0.2% last month, compared to November's upwardly revised rise of 0.3%, while analysts anticipated an increase of 0.5% during the reported period.
Separately, the Department of Labor reported its Producer Price Index surged 0.3% in December, after rising 0.4% in the prior month. However, the reading topped economists' forecasts for a 1.1% increase. The PPI grew 1.3% compared to the same period one year ago and 1.6% for all of 2016. The rise was mainly driven by stronger oil prices that rose above $50 per barrel over the past months. In the meantime, the University of Michigan said its flash Consumer Confidence Index fell to 98.1 in January, following December's final reading of 98.2 and missing expectations for 98.6.
Upcoming fundamental releases: First day of the World Economic Forum
It is the first day of the World Economic Forum, and information will be coming without a stop during the two day event. In addition, data from the US will be coming out in the form of the Empire State Manufacturing Index at 13:30 GMT. Regarding speeches during the day, a whole list could be made. At 11:45 GMT Prime Minister of the UK Theresa May will give a speech that is most likely to shake the markets, as she will reveal more information regarding Brexit and the future of the EU. At 13:45 FOMC Member Dudley will speak. At 15:00 GMT simultaneously US Treasury Secretary Lew and FOMC Member Brainard are set to give speeches.
Gold above 1,210
Daily chart: As predicted, the yellow metal trades above the 1,210 mark on Tuesday morning. However, after the drastic surge it is most likely that the bullion's price will slightly retreat, as some will take out profits. Although, from a technical perspective the rate has run into the first weekly resistance at 1,211.87. It will take some time until gold break this resistance. After that occurs the commodity price will aim for a new target, which is located near 1,219 level. There the combined resistance of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level with the second monthly resistance are located.Daily chart
Hourly chart: During the last 24 hours the bullion has finally revealed the location of the short term ascending channel's lower trend line. Now the pattern can be clearly seen on the chart. If the channel is not broken due to fundamental news, the yellow metal is likely to surge up to the 1,230 mark in during this week.
Hourly chart
Trader bullish sentiment
OANDA Gold traders have decreased their largely optimistic outlook on the yellow metal, as open positions were 72% bullish on Tuesday, compared to 74% previously. Meanwhile, traders of SAXO bank also remain long, regarding the yellow metal, as 63.45% of open positions are bullish.