Gold in limbo around a level of significance

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • 58% of all SWFX open positions are long
  • Trader pending commands are set up to buy the metal, namely 58% of total orders
  • Gold opened Tuesday's session at 1,193.07
  • Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Preliminary GDP; US CB Consumer Confidence; FOMC Member Dudley Speaks; FOMC Member Powell Speaks
On Tuesday morning the yellow metal bounced around the weekly PP without a clear direction. The reason for that are the short term support levels, which keep it up on the hourly chart. Previously, on Monday the yellow metal jumped and gained 0.82% by the end of the day. It is most likely that the metal continue to trade flat until fundamental data from the US is released and gives it a direction. However, most hints indicate that the metal will fall, as the data might turn out to be more positive than expected.

New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose markedly last month, driven by higher demand for machinery and other equipment, official figures revealed on Wednesday. Overall, new orders for capital goods jumped 4.8% in October, according to the US Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a slight acceleration to 1.2%. The September figure was revised down from -0.1% to -0.3%. Demand for transportation equipment jumped 12% during the reported month, the largest gain since October 2015. Back in September, new orders for transportation equipment climbed 0.4%. Excluding orders tied to transportation, core durable goods orders increased 1.0%, following September's downwardly revised gain of 0.1% and surpassing the 0.2% rise market forecast. The US economy is set to expand at a 3.6% annual pace in the Q3, after growing 2.9% in the previous quarter. Separately, the Department of Labor reported on Wednesday the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 251,000 in the week ending November 18, up from the prior week's 233,000, whereas analysts expected a milder rise to 241,000.

On Monday 21 of November ECB President Mario Draghi, during his speech has urged the European Union to stay united in the face of different challenges such as Brexit as he warned that the cohesion of Europe is being tested. Speaking in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Mr. Draghi noted that "The euro area recovery continues to proceed at a moderate, but steady, pace. It has shown remarkable resilience to adverse developments and uncertainties emanating from the global environment." said that Europe needs to respond "cohesively and decisively" to the current challenges facing Europe. Overall, Mr. Draghi maintained a neutral tone and he is not prepared at this stage to offer strong hints over the likely policy action at December's policy meeting. There were also no attempts to steamroller the ECB Council into policy action. The stated above comments will maintain expectations that the ECB is not planning to announce some form of bond-buying extension, although the details are still in discussion. In the meantime, reaction to the speech was limited as markets remained in a consolidation phase with EUR/USD finding support just below the 1.0600 level.

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Upcoming fundamentals: US data dictates the rules

As it was expected, Mario Draghi did not say much new on Monday. However, Tuesday is a lot more interesting day, as loads of US data will be released. Moreover, these data releases are set to cause short term volatility in the markets. US Preliminary GDP is set to be released at 13:30 GMT and at 15:00 GMT CB Consumer Confidence is set to be out. In addition, there are a few speeches set for the day, which will reveal additional information. First of all FOMC member Dudley will give a speech at 14:15 GMT. Secondly, FOMC member Powell will speak at 17:40 GMT.



Gold stopped by resistance

Daily chart: The yellow metal remained flat at the weekly PP, which is located at 1,191.86, on Tuesday morning. Previously, on Monday the commodity price surged from 1,182.80 to 1,193.29 by the end of the session, as it was forecasted before. It is most likely that the bullion will remain squeezed in between the weekly PP and the resistance cluster above it at 1,200 until the upper trend line of the descending channel forces it lower. Meanwhile, daily aggregate technical indicators support the hypothesis of a fall.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals an interesting picture. Gold is stuck due to it being pressured against the weekly PP. It is pressured by the 55 and 100-hour SMAs. However, previously the 100-hour SMA was above the weekly PP and the 55-hour SMA was below it. Most recently the 100-hour SMA moved lower and provided support together with the 55-hour SMA on Tuesday morning.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX trader sentiment stagnates

SWFX market sentiment remained unchanged for the third consecutive session on Tuesday, as 58% of open positions were long. Meanwhile, pending commands were bullish, as 58% of trader set up orders were to buy.

OANDA open long positions decreased and are at 75.61%, compared to 77.59% on Monday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders have slightly decreased their bullish outlook, as on Tuesday 63.34% of traders bet the metal will surge, compared to 64.70% during the previous session.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of gold at 1,300 by February

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between October 29 and November 29 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,300 in late February. Generally, 50% (-2%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 37% (+2%) of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1,150 and 1,300 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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