- 58% of all SWFX open positions are long
- Trader pending commands are set up to buy the metal, namely 58% of total orders
- Gold opened Tuesday's session at 1,193.07
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Preliminary GDP; US CB Consumer Confidence; FOMC Member Dudley Speaks; FOMC Member Powell Speaks
New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose markedly last month, driven by higher demand for machinery and other equipment, official figures revealed on Wednesday. Overall, new orders for capital goods jumped 4.8% in October, according to the US Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a slight acceleration to 1.2%. The September figure was revised down from -0.1% to -0.3%. Demand for transportation equipment jumped 12% during the reported month, the largest gain since October 2015. Back in September, new orders for transportation equipment climbed 0.4%. Excluding orders tied to transportation, core durable goods orders increased 1.0%, following September's downwardly revised gain of 0.1% and surpassing the 0.2% rise market forecast. The US economy is set to expand at a 3.6% annual pace in the Q3, after growing 2.9% in the previous quarter. Separately, the Department of Labor reported on Wednesday the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 251,000 in the week ending November 18, up from the prior week's 233,000, whereas analysts expected a milder rise to 241,000.
On Monday 21 of November ECB President Mario Draghi, during his speech has urged the European Union to stay united in the face of different challenges such as Brexit as he warned that the cohesion of Europe is being tested. Speaking in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Mr. Draghi noted that "The euro area recovery continues to proceed at a moderate, but steady, pace. It has shown remarkable resilience to adverse developments and uncertainties emanating from the global environment." said that Europe needs to respond "cohesively and decisively" to the current challenges facing Europe. Overall, Mr. Draghi maintained a neutral tone and he is not prepared at this stage to offer strong hints over the likely policy action at December's policy meeting. There were also no attempts to steamroller the ECB Council into policy action. The stated above comments will maintain expectations that the ECB is not planning to announce some form of bond-buying extension, although the details are still in discussion. In the meantime, reaction to the speech was limited as markets remained in a consolidation phase with EUR/USD finding support just below the 1.0600 level.
Upcoming fundamentals: US data dictates the rules
As it was expected, Mario Draghi did not say much new on Monday. However, Tuesday is a lot more interesting day, as loads of US data will be released. Moreover, these data releases are set to cause short term volatility in the markets. US Preliminary GDP is set to be released at 13:30 GMT and at 15:00 GMT CB Consumer Confidence is set to be out. In addition, there are a few speeches set for the day, which will reveal additional information. First of all FOMC member Dudley will give a speech at 14:15 GMT. Secondly, FOMC member Powell will speak at 17:40 GMT.
Gold stopped by resistance
Daily chart: The yellow metal remained flat at the weekly PP, which is located at 1,191.86, on Tuesday morning. Previously, on Monday the commodity price surged from 1,182.80 to 1,193.29 by the end of the session, as it was forecasted before. It is most likely that the bullion will remain squeezed in between the weekly PP and the resistance cluster above it at 1,200 until the upper trend line of the descending channel forces it lower. Meanwhile, daily aggregate technical indicators support the hypothesis of a fall.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals an interesting picture. Gold is stuck due to it being pressured against the weekly PP. It is pressured by the 55 and 100-hour SMAs. However, previously the 100-hour SMA was above the weekly PP and the 55-hour SMA was below it. Most recently the 100-hour SMA moved lower and provided support together with the 55-hour SMA on Tuesday morning.
Hourly chart
SWFX trader sentiment stagnates
OANDA open long positions decreased and are at 75.61%, compared to 77.59% on Monday. Meanwhile, SAXO bank traders have slightly decreased their bullish outlook, as on Tuesday 63.34% of traders bet the metal will surge, compared to 64.70% during the previous session.