Gold reaches above 1,215 mark

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • 55% of all SWFX open positions are long
  • Pending orders at 59% long
  • Gold opened Tuesday's session at 1212.74
  • Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: US Existing Home Sales
The metal surged on Tuesday morning, as it broke through the resistance put up by the weekly PP at 1,214.32. Due to that it is most likely that the metal will surge up to the next level of significance at 1,225.74, where the weekly R1 is located at. However, the bullion seems to be reluctant to take the new height, as ever-changing fundamentals dictate the commodity price, not the dispersion of already existing information. It also has to be mentioned that the daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a fall by the end of the day. Moreover, yesterday a new weekly forecast was calculated, which indicated at no changes during the week.

On Monday 21 of November ECB President Mario Draghi, during his speech has urged the European Union to stay united in the face of different challenges such as Brexit as he warned that the cohesion of Europe is being tested. Speaking in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Mr. Draghi noted that "The euro area recovery continues to proceed at a moderate, but steady, pace. It has shown remarkable resilience to adverse developments and uncertainties emanating from the global environment." said that Europe needs to respond "cohesively and decisively" to the current challenges facing Europe. Overall, Mr. Draghi maintained a neutral tone and he is not prepared at this stage to offer strong hints over the likely policy action at December's policy meeting. There were also no attempts to steamroller the ECB Council into policy action. The stated above comments will maintain expectations that the ECB is not planning to announce some form of bond-buying extension, although the details are still in discussion. In the meantime, reaction to the speech was limited as markets remained in a consolidation phase with EUR/USD finding support just below the 1.0600 level.

US consumer prices see the biggest increase in six months in October amid higher gasoline and rent costs. According to the US Department of Labor, the Consumer Price Index advanced 0.4% last month, following September's gain of 0.3%. On a yearly basis, consumer prices grew 1.6% in October, the largest annual increase since October 2014, up from the preceding month's 1.5%. Both readings came in line with analysts' expectations. Nevertheless, the so-called core CPI, which excludes prices for volatile items such as energy and food, rose 0.1% in the reported month, unchanged from September, while market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 0.2%. Year-over-year, core consumer prices fell to 2.1% in October, following the prior month's 2.2% gain. Higher inflation as well as the strong labor market are likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to raise its key interest rates at its next meeting in December. The Central bank increased its key overnight interest rate in December 2015 for the first time since the global financial crisis. The Labor Department said gasoline prices surged 7.0%, up from September's 5.8%, whereas food prices remained unchanged. Within components of the core CPI, rents rose 0.4%, while medical care costs were unchanged. The price of prescription drugs rose 0.2%.

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Upcoming fundamentals: One more quiet day

Tuesday is set to be another quiet day for the US Dollar fundamental, macroeconomic data releases, as only one release is scheduled for today. It is going to be the US Existing Home Sales at 15:00 GMT. However, this publication is not even slightly likely to affect the pair by causing short term volatility.



Gold breaks resistance on Tuesday morning

Daily chart: The yellow metal broke through the resistance put up by the weekly PP at 1,214.32 on Tuesday morning. Previously, on Monday and Friday the metal was positioned to fall and find support in the 1,200 level, around which a cluster of levels of significance is located at. However, the bullion rebounded already at the 1,202.83 level. From a technical perspective gold is set now to surge up to the level of 1,225.74, where the weekly R1 is located at. However, daily aggregate technical indicators forecast a red candle by the end of the day.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

Hourly chart: The yellow metal continues to surge in an ascending channel pattern, which can be clearly seen on the hourly chart. It seems that the metal is still set to slightly fluctuate around the weekly PP at 1,214.32. However, most likely by tomorrow the bullion will resume the surge to the weekly R1 at 1,225.74. At the moment it seems that the weekly R1 could be reached at the earliest just after midnight on November 23.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA


SWFX bullish sentiment increases

Traders have slightly increased their bullish outlook, as 55% of open positions were long on Tuesday morning, compared to 54% previously. Meanwhile, pending commands remain bullish, as 59% of trader set up orders are to buy.

OANDA open long positions have increased and are at 81.12%, compared to 79.02% on Monday. SAXO bank traders remain long, as on Tuesday 67.04% of traders bet the metal will surge, compared to 67.69% during the previous session.

Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility


Market participants foresee the price of gold below 1,300 by February

Traders who were asked regarding their longer-term views on gold between October 22 and November 22 expect, on average, to see the metal around 1,300 in late February. Generally, 55% (+10%) of participants believe the price will be above 1,300 in ninety days. Alongside, 33% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1,150 and 1,300 over the next three months.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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