- Opened positions for Gold remain strongly positive (74% bullish / 26% bearish)
- It is possible that Gold will grow in price, with the closest resistance for it located at 1,219
- At the same time, the probability of a downside movement exists as well, while for that purpose the closest support is placed at 1,210
- Upcoming events on January 10-12: US Labor Market Conditions Index, Treasury Bill Auctions (3M, 6M and 3Y) and Federal Budget Balance, Australian Home Loans and ANZ Job Advertisements, Japanese Current Account Balance
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Bullion was little changed on Friday ahead of important US data on the job market later in the day, with better than expected job report is likely to dent gold's lure as a hedge. Nevertheless, the precious metal is set for a first weekly gain in four due to safe-haven bids amid political tensions in Greece coupled with strong demand from China ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday season. The precious metal has risen 2% so far this week, following a three-week losing streak, after global equities plummeted amid concerns over political situation in Greece that might see it exiting the Euro zone.
Meanwhile, minutes of the latest FOMC meeting were scarce on new information, showing once again that the Fed opted out to remain patient in beginning to normalize the monetary policy. Thus, the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates until April. The Fed reiterated that policy decisions depend on the economy's progress toward full employment and 2% inflation, the central bank's dual mandate.
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News from Asia-Pacific region to have most influence on Gold on Monday
The first day of the next working week will be rather silent in terms of any statistics from world's largest economies. At the same time, attention can be paid to Japan and Australia where several important economic indicators are going to be announced, which may have impact on the price of the yellow metal. They will include the current account balance in the world's third biggest economy, as well as home loans and job advertisements in Australia. US, in turn, will only publish the December's federal budget balance.Read More: Fundamental Analysis
XAU/USD returns back below down-trend
The XAU/USD cross has breached the most important resistance line, represented by the long-term downtrend and developed above this level for the past week. However, on December 15 Gold returned back, mostly amid fundamental factors. At the moment the most considerable resistance is represented by this long-term downtrend line, which is currently located at $1,225 and strengthened by the 100-day SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Therefore, in course of first months of 2015 Gold is suggested to lose value.Daily chart
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XAU/USD cross traded in rather calm environment back on Thursday, as no drivers managed to pushed the bullion trading in any direction. As a result, it remained hovering around the weekly R1 at $1,210. This level is reinforced by the 100-day SMA and long-term downtrend from above; therefore, the bullish scenario is less likely to be the case in the short-term. Technical indicators on daily and weekly charts are neutral, while in the long-term they are giving bearish signals, assuming that Gold will depreciate.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
Long opened positions decrease to 74%
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on XAU/USD between Dec 9 and Jan 9 expect, on average, to see Gold trading just above 1,200 by the end of April. At the same time, 54% of them believe the bullion will be above this mark in three months, while 27% of traders surveyed forecast the bullion to trade in the range between 1,050 and 1,200.
© Dukascopy Bank SA