- Pending orders: 55% to acquire and 45% to sell the US Dollar
- Currency pair is vulnerable to a sell-off down to 118
- Fingraphs.com: USD/JPY to trade in the 1.23-1.25 region in the next few months
- Upcoming events: Japanese Retail Trade and Industrial Production on Monday
Japan's annualized core inflation cooled for a fourth consecutive month in November due to falling oil prices, underscoring challenges the Bank of Japan faces in reaching the 2% inflation goal. Factory production unexpectedly dropped, while real wages posted the sharpest decline in five years. The core consumer price index, which strips out volatile fresh food but includes oil products, climbed 2.7% in November from the previous year. Excluding the effects of a sales tax increase in April, core consumer inflation was 0.7%, falling from 0.9% in October and far below the BoJ's 2% target. Industrial production declined 0.6%, however, manufacturers expect output to increase 3.2% in December and rise 5.7% in the beginning of 2015.
The BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that recent drops in oil prices would be beneficial for the Japanese economy and would help to accelerate inflation in the long term. Kuroda underlined that while oil price declines weigh on overall prices in the short term, they will help to boost corporate profits and allow companies to increase wages. On top of that, minutes of the November meeting of the BoJ showed that board members urged the government to "steadily promote measures aimed at establishing a sustainable fiscal structure."
Even more Japanese data on Monday
Though there are no data releases planned for today, on Monday we will get more insights into the retail and industrial sectors of the Japanese economy. But starting from Tuesday it is all going to be all about the US economy - Consumer Confidence on Dec 30 and Manufacturing PMI on Jan 2.
USD/JPY halted by 121
Since the supply at 121 (weekly and monthly R1 levels) withstood USD/JPY's recent attack, the currency pair is vulnerable to a sell-off down to 118. A dip beneath this point will be highly unlikely, being that demand there is implied by the weekly pivot point, multi-month up-trend and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the Oct-Dec rally. On the other hand, should the rate jump over 121 in the next few days, the pair will likely aim for 124 next. Jean-Francois Owczarczak, the director of Fingraphs.com, is "still quite positive on the Dollar" and expects USD/JPY to trade in the 1.23-1.25 region in the next few months.Daily chart
On the hourly chart USD/JPY failed to reach the Dec high and broke out of the bullish channel to the downside, which is a sell signal. However, there is a strong demand zone between 119.50 and 119.20, which may attempt to prevent the rate from falling down to 117.50/00, although it seems unlikely.
Hourly chart
SWFX market stays undecided
As for the pending orders — 55% are placed to acquire and 45% are set to sell the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen, meaning neither a dip nor a rally are to be accelerated by the actions of traders for now.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community expects Yen to appreciate towards 120
One of the proponents of a bullish scenario, aslamhammad, turned out to be right to expect positive US GDP numbers. He sees USD/JPY being near 2014 highs be the end of this week. In the meantime, rokasltu is skeptical regarding 120 being broken, reckoning the bulls will not be able to push the price far.