- Sentiment among SWFX traders has been unchanged (57% short) since Monday of the previous week
- EUR/USD's pending commands were sent deeper into red, following the pair's heavy losses yesterday
- Bearish traders to aim at Dec/Apr 2015 lows around 1.05; any recovery can be capped by 55-day SMA
- Short-term technical studies are mixed, as weekly indicators foresee losses for EUR
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: Euro zone and US Services PMI (Dec); French Consumer Confidence Index; US ADP Employment Change (Dec), Trade Balance (Nov), Factory Orders (Nov), ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) and Crude Oil Reserves (Jan 1); FOMC Meeting Minutes
Euro zone consumer inflation remained stubbornly weak in December, underscoring challenges for the European Central Bank to boost inflation. Consumer prices in the 19-nation bloc climbed 0.2% on an annual and seasonally adjusted basis in the final month of the year. Policy makers and economists expected inflation to pick up, since oil prices were predicted to remain steady. However, with oil prices renewing the slide as 2015 drew to a close, those hopes have been fanned, adding to signs the ECB will embark on additional stimulus measures this year. The annual rate of inflation has been below the central bank's target since March 2013, and below 0.5% since July 2014. Declining oil prices have been the main contributor, falling 5.9% in the 12 month through December. At the same time, the core measure, which strips out alcohol, tobacco, food and energy, increased 0.9% in the reported month. Nevertheless, oil prices are not the only factor keeping inflation stubbornly low. While the Euro bloc's economy returned to growth in mid-2013, its recovery has been fragile, with the unemployment rate of around 11% and leaving businesses with large amount of spare capacity and little pressure to increase prices.
British construction sector ended 2015 on a high note, as business activity in the sector rebounded from a seven-month low in November, thanks to an increase in commercial building on the back of the UK economic recovery. The Markit/CIPS Construction PMI climbed to 57.8, up from 55.3, surpassing economists forecast of 56.0. Within the sector, commercial construction enjoyed the strongest performance in December, followed by residential construction. The UK construction remains one of the most volatile components on the output side of GDP, and was among major downward drivers in the third quarter of 2015, when it dropped 1.9% in the reported period. However, Markits' data revealed that companies in the sector were optimistic about 2016. Earlier in the week Markit reported weakness in the UK manufacturing sector. The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI dropped to 51.9 last month, sliding to the lowest level in three months, compared with 52.5 in November. Manufacturing failed to add to Britain's economic growth throughout the first three quarters of 2015, with the services industry being the main driver of economic expansion. The output and new order growth slowed further in the reported month.
Upcoming fundamentals: European session to focus on PMI data for services sector
Similar to Monday of this week, when many European economies released their manufacturing PMI indicators for December, today the same statistics will be out for the services industry. This sector tends to be much more important for the region's economy, accounting for around 70% of the output. Among the biggest Euro zone member states, an activity growth is estimated to be affirmed everywhere expect France, where the PMI has probably stood at 50 points and indicated to neither advance nor contraction. Meantime, American session will be much more active today. The data set will range from ADP labour market statistics to FOMC meeting minutes later in the day. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI indicator is expected to come in at 56 points for December, up from 55.9 points showed by preliminary projections.
EUR/USD strengthens a drop below 1.0750
EUR/USD was down for a third session in a row on Tuesday. The currency pair was hammered by depressing European fundamentals, which led to a dip below the second daily support of 1.0750 (weekly S2. Alongside, the first demand was easily eroded near 1.08. Now the mid-term focus shifts to the area just above 1.05, where both December and April lows lie. Intermediate support for the bulls should be offered by weekly S3 and monthly S1 and 1.0669 and 1.0565, respectively. Meantime, any revival will be complicated by the downward-sloping 55-day SMA, currently at 1.0841.Daily chart
After coming under July low of the previous year, EUR/USD is putting at risk much lower levels some 250 pips below the present spot price (1.0748 at the moment of writing). We are not ruling out such a negative development for the Euro, but firstly we should see a confident consolidation below 1.08. It means that the pair is required to keep trading below this mark for at least the whole session on Wednesday.
Hourly chart
Pending orders fall deeper into red as EUR/USD slips down
Meanwhile, a dominance of the bears over bulls is still narrowing down in both OANDA and SAXO Bank markets. The former's short traders are now holding only as many as 54.33% (more than 56% yesterday) of all positions. Alongside, SAXO Bank market participants trimmed the total number of their bearish positions down from 63% to 62% by the January 6 morning.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
More than 57% of Dukascopy Community members see the Euro declining versus the US Dollar by the end of this week
This week traders' expectations did not change a lot, with 57% of Dukascopy Community members still predicting the pair to lose value.
Concerning traders' opinions on the matter, Zildjian suggests that "we can assume that the price will continue to fall and probably will reach the 1.075 level." Moreover, agddivisas observes that "now the pair is falling until the resistance level of 1.075. After that, the trend will change to the bearish one."