- Sentiment among SWFX traders is bearish, as 56% of all transactions are short
- Most of the pending orders are still set to sell EUR vs USD
- The pair is likely to hover in a limited range during pre-Christmas trading
- Daily indicators are also neutral on the EUR/USD cross today
- No major economic events are due in the next 24 hours
US factory orders for long-lasting goods including autos, airplanes and electronics were flat in November, as a strong Dollar and struggling global economy weigh on US manufacturers. The Greenback has gained almost 20% against the currencies of the US main trading partners over the last 18 months. According to the Commerce Department, non-defence capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, dropped 0.4% last month. Core capital goods orders climbed by a revised 0.6% in October. They were previously reported to have increased 1.3%. New orders in the category were down 3.6% through the first 11 months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier. Durable goods orders have plunged 3.7% year-to-date. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the three months through September, the Commerce Department said earlier in the week, driven by a 9.9% growth rate for fixed non-residential investment in equipment. Overall growth appears fairly steady as 2015 comes to an end. Macroeconomic Advisers expected US GDP to rise at a 1.9% pace in the fourth quarter.
The UK economy grew less strongly than previously estimated in both the second and third quarters, providing the Bank of England with more reason to remain cautious as it ponders when to raise interest rates from all-time low. The British economy expanded 0.4% in the three months through September, compared with a previous estimate of 0.5%, while annual growth was lowered by two percentage points to 2.1%. Furthermore, growth in the second quarter was revised down more sharply. GDP in the June quarter was downgraded to 0.5% from 0.7%. Weaker growth in the services sector, particularly in financial services, was the main reason behind the new, lower assessment of growth for the July-September period, according to the Office for National Statistics. In a separate report, the ONS said growth in unit labour costs slowed to an annual 2.0% from 2.2% in the second quarter, while a measure of productivity remained unchanged. The BoE Governor Mark Carney said he wants to see unit labour costs increasing, among other factors, before considering hiking rates. In addition, Britain's current account deficit, considered one of the weak points of the country's economic recovery, remained almost stable in the July-September period at 3.7% of GDP, down from 3.8% in the second quarter. At 17.5 billion pounds, the deficit was lower than a forecast 21.5 billion pounds.
Upcoming fundamentals: No major economic events are due in the next 24 hours
On December 24, the trading will be closed in Germany, Switzerland and Denmark. Alongside, some limited activity will be allowed in France, Ireland and the US. Among fundamentals, only the US unemployment claims will out at 13:30 GMT. However, they are estimated to remain broadly flat at 270,000 for the week ended December 19.
EUR/USD fails to overcome weekly PP
EUR/USD attempted to push itself below the weekly pivot point and monthly R1 around 1.09 on Wednesday. However, the bulls were strong enough in order to avoid a decline under this psychological level. Thursday is expected to be spent in a light trading around the 55-day SMA, currently at 1.0922, even though the market will be fully open throughout the whole day. Trading volumes continued to drop yesterday and reached the lowest level since November 26.Daily chart
For some short period of time the EUR/USD cross came back below the 200-hour SMA. It proclaims that overall trading conditions are largely undecided. We expect the pair to trade in a tight range in the run up to the Christmas, while the main borders are created by 1.09 and 1.10.
Hourly chart
SWFX bullish-bearish distribution is flat due to upcoming Christmas holidays
Alongside, traders are remaining in the wait-and-see mode in both OANDA and SAXO Bank market for the moment. The total number of OANDA bearish positions is more or less unchanged at 59% today (59.5% yesterday), while SAXO Bank clients are short on the EUR/USD currency pair around 66% (-1%) of all cases.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
More than 68% of Dukascopy Community members see the Euro declining versus the US Dollar by December 25
This week the overall sentiment on the EUR/USD became clearer, compared to previous week. The 68% of Dukascopy Community members are waiting for the Euro to drop further. The average prediction for December 25 is in turn located around the 1.087 level.
Concerning traders' opinions, babanu claims that "As the dust will start to settle after the first rate hike in almost a decade in US interest rates, we will gradually start to see a decline in this pair towards the parity. The Christmas break will come also and the liquidity will be scarce, but no more surprises to the North is expected".