- SWFX sentiment remains Euro-negative, as bearish share came back to 57%
- 50-pip pending orders dropped, 100-pip commands improved by Wednesday morning
- Expectations are pessimistic, as long as 55-day SMA at 1.0980 remains untouched
- Daily technicals are mixed, three indicators are pointing upwards and three downwards
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: German Trade Balance (Oct); US Wholesale Inventories (Oct), MBA Mortgage Approvals (Dec 4) and Crude Oil Inventories (Dec 4)
The Euro zone economy grew 0.3% in the third quarter following a 0.4% expansion in the June quarter. On an annual basis, the combined gross domestic product of the 19 countries that use the Euro increased 1.6%. The data came in line with Eurostat's preliminary estimate. Household and government spending increased during the reported period, while a rise in stocks also contributed to growth. In contrast, investment spending remained flat, while imports outperformed outbound shipments, stunting the economic recovery. The precipitous slowdown in exports is likely to fuel concerns among policy makers at the ECB that weaker growth in China and other developing economies would weaken the Euro zone economy's fragile revival. Last week the ECB announced additional stimulus measures indented to underpin growth and the inflation rate, while ECB President Mario Draghi cited developments in the global economy as major headwinds that may prompt a further expansion of a bond-buying programme that was introduced in March. Officials will also be concerned by the slowing of investment spending, which has long been a drag on the Euro zone's recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.
UK manufacturing production declined unexpectedly in October, signalling a weak start for the industry in the final quarter of the year. Output of British factories dropped 0.4% on the month in October, following a 0.9% increase in September, the Office for National Statistics reported. The biggest contributor to the decrease appeared to be other manufacturing and repair sub-sectors, within which the drop in repair and maintenance of aircraft and spacecraft was the largest downward drag, plummeting 21.5% on a monthly basis. In annual terms, manufacturing output was 0.1% lower compared with October 2014. Overall industrial production climbed as expected 0.1% in the reported month. Nevertheless, industrial output is still almost 9% below its pre-downturn peak in early 2008. Manufacturing output is around 6.1% below its peak. Markit's headline PMI measure of business activity in UK factories declined in November to 52.7 from a 16-month high of 55.2 in October, as output and new orders rose at a slower pace. Yet, the overall activity so far in the final quarter of the year remained stronger compared with the preceding three-month period. Markit's report also showed little change in the employment level in UK factories following robust job creation in October.
Upcoming fundamentals: EU-US trading session to keep a silent bias
On Wednesday many events are going to take place outside Europe or the US, which are fairly unlikely to put any pressure on the EUR/USD cross in the next 24 hours. We observe an absence of any strong data releases for a third day in a row. Today the German trade balance data is out at 7:00 GMT, which is estimated to show another month of high trade surplus for the European largest economy, despite recent worries over lower demand for export products from China, the Germany's largest trading partner.
EUR/USD attacks 1.09 amid profit-taking
The Euro was bid on Tuesday, as market participants attempted to fix profit from a decline that occurred Friday and Monday. Additional signs of buoyancy are coming from the fact that EUR/USD is currently able to trade above an important resistance, namely the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the Oct-Nov decline and monthly R1 (1.0892). A success here should encourage more purchases in the next 24 hours, with the bulls aiming at 55-day SMA at 1.0980. Another supply is created by 200-day SMA at 1.1030.Daily chart
The spread between 200-hour SMA and the spot has again widened in the one-hour chart. At the moment of writing it was amounting to 198 pips, up from yesterday's 165. It proclaims that the pair is bullish enough, in order not to rely on the moving average in terms of extra upward momentum. Any recovery, however, is at risk of being unstable and sluggish, as long as the 1.10 mark is not penetrated.
Hourly chart
Bearish market share rises back to 57%
Meanwhile, almost 59% of OANDA traders are pessimistic with respect to the EUR/USD currency pair's perspectives. The similar scenario is suitable for SAXO Bank clients, as their bearish advantage over the bulls is even higher there at 67%.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Two thirds of Dukascopy Community members forecast the Euro to depreciate versus the US Dollar this week
During the December 7-11 week the Dukascopy Community members again assume this currency pair is going to decline, as more than 66% of all votes are bearish.
Concerning traders' opinions: "Last week's ECB meeting disappointed the market with less than expected stimulus, and the result it was a rally for the Euro. Nevertheless, the fact remains that the Fed is expected to hike next week, which sets up USD bulls with attractive levels to short the pair this week," claims Jignesh.