- Bullish market share dropped from 48% to 43% amid post-ECB profit-taking
- Pending orders remain Euro-bearish in both 50 and 100-pip ranges
- Analysts foresee market correction as bears are looking at the 1.08 support cluster
- Weekly technical indicators see the Euro lower; daily studies are undecided
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: German Industrial Production (Oct); US Labour Market Conditions Index (Nov); FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
German factory orders increased for the first time in four months, rising more than economists expected, as demand for investment and consumer goods advanced due to an economic recovery in the country and the Euro zone. Industrial orders in the currency bloc's number one economy surged 1.8% in October following a revised 0.7% decline a month earlier, according to the Economy Ministry. In yearly terms, the gauge declined 1.4% in the reported month, after posting a revised 0.7% decrease in the previous month, measured on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. All-time low unemployment, a solid wage outlook and increased immigration is boosting private consumption in Germany that is expected to lead to above-potential mid-term growth, the Bundesbank estimated in its latest monthly report. Meanwhile, the Euro area recovery is benefiting from unprecedented stimulus by the European Central Bank, which lowered its deposit rate to –0.3% and expanded the size of its asset-purchase programme. Meanwhile, business activity in Spain's industrial sector declined in October, as the corresponding gauge declined 0.3% year-on-year following a 3.8% surge in the preceding month.
US non-farm payroll growth continued to gather speed from October said, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as the world's number one economy created 211,000 jobs last month, a solid pace that would help push the economy closer to full employment. Economists had expected the 200,000 increase. The jobless rate remained steady at a seven-year low of 5.0%. The average increase in payrolls over the past three months is now 218,000, the strongest since July. In addition to that, average hourly earnings climbed 0.2% last month, in line with expectations, slowing after a big increase a month earlier. As a result, the 12-month change slid to 2.3%, closer to the trend in recent years. The jobs report is widely considered as the most significant monthly indicator of economic health, and earlier this week Fed Chair Janet Yellen said she still wanted to see more data before making a decision about a potential rate hike at the FOMC's meeting in less than two weeks. If the Fed raises interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, it would end an unprecedented period of easy borrowing that helped boost investment and spending. Yet, Yellen reiterated that interest-rate hikes will be slow and gradual in the months ahead due to sluggish growth overseas as well as divergent monetary policies between the US and other nations.
Upcoming fundamentals: Monday expected to be little volatile amid lack of news
For the EUR/USD currency pair, the first trading day of a new week is forecasted to be tranquil in terms of volatility. There are few fundamental drivers, which may put any significant pressure on this cross on Monday. German industrial production was first up at 7:00 GMT. The numbers had already been released by the time this report was published. Manufacturing output increased by 0.2% in October, missing estimates for a 0.8% gain after a decline of 1.1% in September. Later in the day, an important speech is going to be delivered by the St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who is not the FOMC voting member this year, although he is going to participate in the decision-making process in 2016. He is going to talk on the economy and monetary policy at 17:30 GMT.
EUR/USD to continue trading below 1.10
EUR/USD cooled down on Friday, by falling from Thursday's peak at 1.0980 to reach the 1.0882 mark by the end of last week's trading. In the short term the bears are expected to aim at the weekly pivot point, which guards the July low at 1.0808/1.0795. Consolidation below this area should pave the way toward the monthly pivot point at 1.0724. The medium term outlook remains broadly bearish, as the Fed meeting is looming and weekly technical indicators are pointing confidently downwards.Daily chart
The common currency is estimated to tick lower in the nearest future, judging from the development in the one-hour chart. There is a 200-pip spread between the spot and 200-hour SMA at the moment. However, they are quickly approaching each other, meaning we can observe some buying power in course of this week, which will try to support EUR/USD.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment deteriorates in the wake of post-ECB development
Traders in OANDA and SAXO Bank continue to preserve their bearish views with respect to the EUR/USD currency pair. OANDA clients are short on EUR/USD in 60.84% of all trades at the moment, while SAXO Bank market participants have raised the bearish portion up to 68.29% during the weekend.