- Markets wait for more momentum and give no priority to bulls/bears
- Pending orders are moderately bearish towards the currency pair
- Volatility is expected to surge by Thursday's ECB meeting and US jobs' data on Friday
- Daily technical indicators are mixed for a second day
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: Spanish, Italian, French, German, Euro zone and US Final Manufacturing PMI (Nov); German Unemployment Change and Unemployment Rate (Nov); Italian GDP (Q3) and Unemployment Rate (Oct); Euro zone Unemployment Rate (Oct); US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov), Construction Spending (Oct) and Total Vehicle Sales (Nov); FOMC Members Evans and Brainard Speak
Sales at German retailers dropped unexpectedly on the month in October, whereas a solid increase on the year added to signs that private consumption would remain a key driver for growth in the Euro zone's biggest economy in the final quarter of the year. German retail sales declined 0.4% on the month in real terms in October, following stagnation in the preceding month, according to the Federal Statistics Office. Measured on an annual basis, retail sales edged higher by 2.1%. From January to October, retail sales rose by 2.8% in real terms compared with the same period last year, marking the strongest increase since 1994. German consumers are benefiting from solid employment, increasing wages and nearly stable prices while low interest rates are giving them little incentive to save and cheap energy is freeing up additional cash for spending. A separate report showed, consumer prices in Germany barely grew in November. In annual terms German CPI climbed 0.4%, following the 0.3% gain in the previous month, remaining well below the targeted level. Using the Harmonized Index for Consumer Prices, the inflation rate ticked up 0.3% in November.
US pending home sales increased less than expected in October, adding to signs that the housing market recovery was losing steam following a strong start to the year. According to the National Association of Realtors, its seasonally adjusted pending home sales index climbed 0.2% to 107.7. Strong job gains as well as low mortgage rates boosted sales for much of the year. However, rising home values and limited inventories have restrained further growth in the closing months of 2015. A limited selection of homes on the market has pushed up sales prices 5.8% from a year ago to a median of $219,600. A separate report from the realtor group revealed that finalized contracts to buy a home dropped to 5.36 million on an annualized basis in October, after recording one of the best readings of the recovery in the preceding month. Looking ahead, the NAR predicts more improvement in home sales, although the extent of the gains will depend on inventory growth. Existing home sales are likely to increase to 5.3 million by the end of the next year to mark their highest level in a decade, the NAR expects.
Upcoming fundamentals: Manufacturing activity in Euro zone and US; FOMC speeches
The Purchasing managers' indexes for several countries in the Euro area are due on Tuesday. These are going to be final readings for November. There are only marginal changes expected including the upward revisions for Spain and Italy, while French and German numbers should remain flat. All of them are projected at the level above 50 points, which divides expansion from contraction. Among important US data, which can put some pressure on the EUR/USD cross, the ISM manufacturing PMI is out at 15:00 GMT. The indicator is forecasted to recover from 50.1 to 50.6 points and should push the production sector's downside risks aside for the time being. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will speak about monetary policy and economy in Michigan, with audience questions expected.
EUR/USD flat around 1.058 as ECB meeting nears
EUR/USD hovered modestly to the downside on Monday, but the currency pair saw few opportunities to be dragged significantly lower in course of the session. Euro-traders are waiting for the ECB gathering on Thursday, the main event this week. The crucial support remains unchanged, with the 1.0542/19 area pulling together three technical levels including weekly S1, lower Bollinger band and April low. Additional demand is offered by weekly S2/March low at 1.0492/61. From the other side, any possible gains will eventually confront a strong resistance at 1.0716/39.Daily chart
In the one-hour chart, the currency pair continues to hover between two major trend-lines of the bearish channel. Negative pressure is created by 200-hour SMA, currently at 1.0633. This week EUR/USD will be vulnerable only to extremely important fundamentals, which include the US employment data on Wednesday/Friday and the ECB meeting on Thursday.
Hourly chart
Bullish and bearish market shares are swinging between gains and losses
OANDA clients continue to be bullish with respect to EUR/USD in the majority of all cases, as the bullish percentage stays at 54% on the first day of winter. Separately, SAXO Bank market participants prefer the Greenback to the Euro in more than 54% of all trades.