- Bulls get back the majority of open positions (52%)
- Broad range (100-pip) pending orders are set to sell the Euro in 57% of all cases
- Horizontal trading is likely to be prolonged through Wednesday due to Veterans Day in US
- Daily technical indicators changed their mind to give bearish signals again
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: German Wholesale Prices (Oct) and 10-y Bond Auction; ECB President Draghi Speaks
Industrial production in France, the Euro area's second largest economy, kept its rising tendency in September month-on-month, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies reported. The French industrial production stepped up 0.1% on a monthly basis, compared with 1.7% posted in August. The figure was not in line with economists' projections of a 0.4% decline in September. Measured on an annual basis, industrial output advanced 1.8% in the ninth month of the year, completely matching analysts' expectations.
In contrast to the French industrial production, the Italian one increased at a slower-than-expected pace in September, booking a gain just in one sector and reversing the prior month's decrease. Industrial output in Europe's third largest economy climbed up by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% month-on-month, compared to a drop of 0.5% from a month ago, the National Statistics Institute Istat stated. Analysts forecasted an increase of 0.6%. In yearly terms, industrial output in Italy rose 1.7% in September, beating economists' expectations of a 1.4% gain. Meanwhile, in his speech, ECB governing council member and Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann expressed his concerns about monetary policy being too loose for a too long period of time.
Upcoming fundamentals: Mario Draghi to speak at BOE forum in London
The Bank of England is holding the Open Forum 2015 today in London. Discussion will be focused on financial markets. Participants will try to map optimistic future for financial markets, which will be powerful drivers of global prosperity. The event will be a meeting place for monetary policymakers, academics, media representatives and users of financial markets. At 13:15 GMT the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will deliver his remarks to the forum. He will be preceded by the BOE Governor Mark Carney at 9:00 GMT.
EUR/USD keeps trading in horizontal trend
EUR/USD has been broadly unchanged in value this week so far, owing to lack of any fundamental drivers. At the moment of writing the pair was hovering moderately below the monthly S1 at 1.0768, which acts as the closest resistance for bulls. Bears are still watching the Apr low at 1.0519, but this area is likely to be touched in the medium term. Short term perspectives are therefore remaining neutral, with rallies capped by Jul low at 1.0808 and losses contained by the 1.07 mark.Daily chart
As for the one-hour chart, our expectations also remain broadly the same. Bearish pressure should be created by the 200-hour SMA at 1.0883, but this line is located far enough and guarantees some period of sideways trading for the EUR/USD cross.
Hourly chart
Bulls regain majority in SWFX market
Bullish views are still supported by a minimal majority of OANDA clients as 50.18% of them are keeping long open positions on the Euro versus US Dollar. However, SAXO Bank traders are unwilling to go long, while bears preserve an advantage of 57% against a bullish share of 43%.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Vast majority of Community members forecast the Euro to plummet against the US Dollar this week
This week, Dukascopy traders became totally bearish on the European currency's perspectives, as only 12.5% of all votes are set to go long on the EUR/USD currency pair at the moment.
"The price was declining sharply after the NFP release and daily candle closed under the 1.0850 support level. I am expecting a pullback near this area and there is a high possibility of a bearish reversal (the bearish pressure will continue). In my view this pair will be very close to parity at the end of the year" - said trader csan86.