- Portion of long positions returned back to 52%
- Pending orders are still set to sell the Euro in the majority of cases (56%)
- Consolidation below 1.08 is expected this week; bears are watching Arp low at 1.0519
- Daily technical indicators changed from negative to mixed over the weekend
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: German Trade Balance (Sep); Eurogroup Meeting; US Labour Market Conditions Index (Oct)
Industrial production in Germany failed to emerge in expansion territory in September, following a steep decline in the prior month. According to the Destatis, factory production in the Euro area's powerhouse economy dropped 1.1% in the given period, after reporting a revised 0.6% decrease in August. The final reading missed market expectations of 0.5% growth in September. In annual terms, output advanced 0.2% in the reported period, compared to a 2.7% rise in the preceding month. Meanwhile, regarding to industrial sector in other major European economy, the industrial output in Spain expanded at a faster pace in September, as the gauge posted a 3.8% rise during September on an annual basis, compared to the previous month's 2.8% reading. In the meantime, the state budget deficit in the second biggest European economy, France, narrowed over the first nine months of 2015, compared with the same period in the prior year, as spending dropped slightly, while tax revenue increased. The deficit fell to 74.5 billion euros at the end of the reported period from 80.5 billion euros over the same period a year earlier. At the same time, spending fell by 2.7 billion euros, while tax revenue increased by 2.5 billion euros.
US job growth accelerated at a much faster pace than expected in October following two consecutive months of tepid gains, setting the stage for the December rate hike. Nonfarm payrolls surged 271,000 last month, the biggest increase since December 2014, according to the Labor Department. The number was well above economists' expectations of 182,000 new jobs. Payrolls data for August and September were revised to show 12,000 more jobs added than previously reported. The strong rebound in payroll creation in October lifted the three-month average to 187,000. The US unemployment rate declined to 5.0%, the lowest level in more than seven years.
Upcoming fundamentals: Eurogroup meets in Brussels
Today finance ministers from 19 Euro zone countries will meet in Brussels for a scheduled meeting. There are a number of important topics are due to be discussed. At first, officials will evaluate the work accomplished by the Single Resolution Board within the European banking union established in the beginning of this year. Additionally, the Eurogroup will assess progress with implementations of reforms in Greece and will decide on the next tranche of three billion euros from the European Stability Mechanism. Extra topics to cover will include economic and fiscal situation in the Euro zone and the fourth post-help programme review in Spain.
EUR/USD slumps below 1.075 after NFP
Daily decline of the Euro against the US Dollar amounted to 150 pips on Friday, following encouraging employment report from the world's biggest economy. May and July lows failed to contain losses and EUR/USD ended the week at 1.0736. Considering lack of fundamental drivers in the next few days, we will expect some rebound to take place in the near term. At the same time, monthly S1 at 1.0768 will be the first to try limiting any possible rally. Meantime, bears are now setting eyes on monthly S2/Apr low at 1.0533/19.Daily chart
EUR/USD approached an important trend-line in the one-hour chart, but losses did not exceed through 1.07. Bears are likely to attempt sending the common currency down to 1.0650, but some sideways movement is not off the table in the next few days.
Hourly chart
Sentiment and pending orders are broadly unchanged from Friday
Bullish views are supported by OANDA clients as 53.3% of them are keeping long open positions on the Euro versus US Dollar. However, SAXO Bank traders are unwilling to go long, while bears preserve an advantage of 56% against a 44% share for bulls.