- Bullish share rose from 49% to 51% as pair declined in value on Tuesday
- Pending orders to buy the Euro also surged from 39% to 48%
- Initial target for bears is Oct 28 low at 1.09, followed by the strong 1.08 area
- Daily technical indicators assume the Euro will lose value against the Greenback
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: ECB President Draghi Speaks; Euro zone Services and Composite PMI (Oct); US ADP Employment Change (Oct), Trade Balance (Sep), Services PMI (Oct) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct); Fed Chair Yellen Speaks; FOMC Members Dudley, Brainard and Fischer Speak
The European Central Bank said that its bank lending and asset-buying programmes have significantly improve credit conditions in the Euro zone and supported the ongoing recovery in lending activity. The programmes have increased the size of the central bank's balance sheet and has raised the money supply. Both programmes reduced banks' funding costs, incentivising them to pass on the cost relief to final borrowers. Such a development should underpin the recovery in lending and economic activity, pushing inflation up to the ECB's goal in the medium term.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in Spain, the Euro zone's fourth largest economy, continued to rise in October. The number of unemployed surged by 82,000 in the reported month, following an increase of 26,100 in the preceding month. The Spanish economy slowed its pace of growth in the third quarter, with preliminary data showing economic output increasing 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in the three months through September. In the second quarter, the nation's GDP rose 1.0% . Measured on an annual basis, the economy expanded 3.4%, following the second quarter's 3.1% growth. The International Monetary Fund predicts a slowdown of Spanish economic growth in 2016 to 2.5%, half a percentage point below the Spanish government's forecast.
Upcoming fundamentals: EZ PMIs and US ADP report to be closely watched on Wednesday
All major European economies will release their PMI indicators for services industry on Wednesday, starting from 8:15 GMT. According to average analysts' estimates, the biggest countries in the Euro area including Spain, Italy, France and Germany have all showed growth in activity in October. The pan-Euro zone services PMI will be out at 9:00 GMT and experts forecast a reading of 54.2 points, no change from September. Meanwhile, there are number of US reports that are getting ready to be released later in the day. Among them, the ADP non-farm employment change will most likely show a slower pace of job creation in October by 183,000. Data is due at 12:15 GMT and will follow 200,000 jobs generated back in September. On the other hand, US negative trade gap (12:30 GMT) is estimated to fall down from $48.3 billion in August to $42.7 billion in September.
EUR/USD sets eye on recent lows at 1.09
EUR/USD pierced through the weekly pivot point at 1.0998 yesterday, thus reopening the next support zone for bears. They are going to focus on the 1.09 level, which is guarded by the weekly S1 and Oct 28-29 lows. Success here will allow for a sell-off to extend down to the 1.08 area in the nearest future, where May/July lows coincide with the weekly S2. Alongside, rallies are still expected to be capped by the up-trend and 200-day SMA at 1.1070 and 1.11, respectively. On Wednesday EUR/USD's movements will highly depend on a bunch US statistics including the ADP employment report.Daily chart
Better than expected data from America may encourage bears for purchases of the US Dollar at the expense of the Euro. In the medium term a decline may prolong down to 1.0750, judging by the current trend-lines from the one-hour chart. Additional support is coming from the 200-hour SMA, currently at 1.1016.
Hourly chart
Bulls are back above 50%; pending orders approach neutrality
Nonetheless, 55% of SAXO Bank clients still expect EUR/USD to lose value, down from 58% we have observed from Thursday of the previous week till Tuesday of this week. However, OANDA long traders manage to hold 52.19% of all open positions and preserve their majority over bears at the moment.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Community members forecast the Euro to lose value against the US Dollar this week
According to Dukascopy Community members, the most traded currency pair will prolong its bearish tendency throughout this week. This idea is supported by the 61% of Dukascopy traders.
"After dropping below the weekly uptrend line, it is expected that pair will continue it downward trend. If it will break above 1.11 level on the daily chart, then, the pair will resume recent uptrend, and will try to reach recent resistance which is at 1.14" - said trader Drishti.