- SWFX sentiment favours neither bulls nor bears at the moment
- Pending orders in 100-pip range give 55% share to bearish market participants
- Near term focus remains on 1.10, followed by May/July lows at 1.0819/08
- Daily technical indicators are giving an aggregate bullish signal
- Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: Euro zone M3 Money Supply (Sep); US Durable Goods Orders (Sep); Services PMI (Oct) and CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Sentiment among German investors declined less than expected in October, while sentiment in the automotive industry even improved, despite the emissions scandal at Volkswagen and slowdown in the emerging markets. According to the Ifo think tank, the business climate index declined to 108.2 this month from 108.5 in September, the lowest level since July. Managers seemed to remain calm despite China's economic slowdown and structural problems in other developing economies—issues that are unlikely to translate into painful losses for Germany's exporters. Even more surprisingly, executives voiced confidence that the current scandal surrounding Volkswagen's emission test cheating software would not have a severe repercussions on the German car industry as a whole.
The Bundesbank said in its monthly report that Germany's economic upswing continued in the third quarter, even though it lost some steam. The government earlier this month revised downwards its economic growth outlook this year to 1.7% from its previous estimate of 1.8%, but kept next year's outlook at 1.8%. However, many private sector economists and the German Chambers of Commerce, or DIHK, are less sanguine about future growth. The DIHK expects growth of only 1.3% for 2016.
Upcoming fundamentals: US durable goods orders may fail to revive in September
The first important data release on Tuesday will be closely connected with the monetary policy in the Euro zone. The M3 money supply indicator is first up at 9:00 GMT, and analysts estimate the pace of growth of this money aggregate to increase from 4.8% to 5% in September on the annual basis. Meanwhile, US durable goods orders are projected to tumble by 1.1% in September on month-to-month basis, with core reading expected to be unchanged. The numbers will be released at 12:30 GMT and will follow a substantial decline back in August. Among other US fundamentals to influence the EUR/USD cross today, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index is due at 14:00 GMT, while forecasts are biased towards a decrease from 103 to 102.5 points.
EUR/USD comes back above monthly S1
A bounce back took place in the one-day chart for EUR/USD. The pair climbed above 1.1050 on Monday, pricing in worse than expected US housing statistics. Still, the probability of further gains remains tepid and rallies are expected to be contained by key resistance, namely 200-day SMA/weekly PP at 1.1117/33. Additional leg lower is likely to arrive in the nearest future. Short term losses should test the 1.10 psychological level, while a medium term decline will focus on May/July lows at 1.0819/08.Daily chart
As long as the price keep trading below the downtrend line and Sep low (1.1080 area), the near term outlook will remain bearish. Extra pressure will be created by the downward-sloping 200-hour SMA, which is quickly approaching the spot as gap between them narrowed from 300 to 200 pips in the past 24 hours.
Hourly chart
SWFX sentiment mixed again; bullish orders unable to gain majority
Meanwhile, the majority (56%) of SAXO Bank clients still expect EUR/USD to lose value, up marginally from the distribution observed yesterday. However, OANDA traders continue to be bullish on the matter, with long trades accounting for 54% (56% on Monday) of all open positions.