EUR/USD nears six-month high

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Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
  • Pending orders held by bulls fell further from 56% to 51%
  • Long open positions were down to 48% over the weekend
  • Bulls set eyes on 1.15; 2005 low at 1.1637 comes next
  • Bears to escape narrow range between May and Jun highs
  • Economic events to watch in the next 24 hours: US Treasury Bill Auctions, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart Speaks

© Dukascopy Bank SA
The common currency continued to strengthen versus the majority of its peers on Friday amid the combination of factors including Fed minutes, weakness in China and slumping equity markets. EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD skyrocketed 2.4%, as falling oil prices were clearly reflected in pricing of commodity currencies. In the meantime, the Euro has also advanced more than one percentage point versus the Sterling, US Dollar and Kiwi. The only losers were EUR/CHF and EUR/JPY, as the Franc and the Yen reaffirmed their safe-haven status and managed to add value.

Activity in the Euro zone manufacturing sector remained robust in August, while services also kept momentum. The flash manufacturing PMI for the 19-nation region came in at 52.4 points this month, the same as in July, whereas analysts had predicted a slight setback to 52.2. At the same time, the currency bloc's services PMI climbed to 54.3 points, compared with 54.0 in the preceding month. As a result, composite PMI increased to 54.1, up from 53.9 in July.

In Germany, the Euro zone's powerhouse, manufacturing sector remained firmly in expansion, with the flash manufacturing PMI surging to 53.2 points in August, up from 51.8 a month earlier. The services sector also enjoyed a robust activity growth in the measured month, with the corresponding gauge coming in at 53.6. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in Germany was hit by the escalating Greek debt crisis, with the forward-looking Gfk consumer climate sliding to 9.9, down from 10.1. In France, factories failed to regain momentum this month, as flash manufacturing PMI declined to 48.6, from 49.6 seen in July. The reading stayed below the crucial 50-mark, which separates contraction from expansion. However, the flash services PMI stayed above the threshold, coming in at 51.8, compared with 52.0 in July.

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Upcoming fundamentals: Atlanta Fed President to speak on Monday



There is no important fundamental news expected by the market on Monday. The US Treasuries' auction is going to take place at 15:30 GMT, with three and six-month bills to be issued. Additionally, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Dennis Lockhart is going to speak at the 2015 Public Pension Funding Forum today. He is a FOMC voting member in 2015; therefore, his speech is assumed to be important just before the Fed is getting ready to hike interest rates.


EUR/USD up 480 pips since Wednesday

EUR/USD climbed from 1.1020 to 1.15 in just slightly more than three trading days, reflecting Fed dovishness and dropping equity markets worldwide. After violating both Jun and May high on Monday morning, the next bullish target is represented by the Feb high at 1.1534 right now. However, gains are likely to be allowed until 2005 low at 1.1637 in the medium term. Despite that, daily Stochastic indicator suggests the Euro is overbought at the moment, and we may observe a correction at some point of time.

Daily chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

In the meantime, in the one-hour chart EUR/USD shows a strong upward trend of Wednesday-Monday. Moreover, it seems that the pair formed a bullish channel due to mentioned developments. By penetrating the upper trend-line of the pattern, the Euro will be expected to raise its pace of growth versus the US Dollar.

Hourly chart
© Dukascopy Bank SA

SWFX sentiment bearish, pending orders stay marginally positive

Sentiment towards EUR/USD among SWFX market participants lost one percentage point over the weekend, with bullish share falling down from 49% to 48%. In addition to that, long pending orders in 100-pip range from the spot price lost five additional percentage points to 51%, as some traders fixed profit after substantial gains of EUR/USD in the past three days.

Meanwhile, bullish positions at OANDA account for just 33% at the moment, while SAXO Bank market participants are also remaining strongly pessimistic towards the common currency, even though their portion of longs surged from 26 to 37% in the past 72 hours.













Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility



Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade at 1.10 by November

Meanwhile, traders, who were asked regarding their longer-term views on EUR/USD between Jul 24 and Aug 24 expect, on average, to see the currency pair at 1.10 by the end of November. Though the majority of participants, namely 54% of them, believe the exchange rate will drop below this mark in ninety days, with 34% alone seeing it below 1.06. Alongside, 21% of those surveyed reckon the price will trade in the range between 1.10 and 1.16 by the end of November of this year.

© Dukascopy Bank SA

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