- SWFX market sentiment is 54% bearish
- Trader pending orders are 54% bullish
- Pair opened Thursday's session at 1.0663
- Upcoming Events: ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts; US Unemployment Claims
US private companies created more jobs than markets expected last month, suggesting further tightening of the labour market. According to the ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, the US private sector added 263,000 new jobs to the economy in March, following the preceding month's downwardly revised gain of 245,000 and surpassing analysts' expectations for an increase of 184,000. The ADP data come ahead of the US Department of Labour's more comprehensive report on non-farm employment due on Friday. Yesterday's better-than-expected figures ratchet up analysts' expectations for Friday's numbers, who initially expected the NFP report to show a gain of 174,000 jobs.
Other data released by the ISM on Wednesday revealed that US services activity slowed more than expected last month, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI coming in at 55.2, down from the prior month's 57.6, while analysts anticipated a slight decrease to 57.0 points. In the meantime, the EIA reported US crude oil inventories climbed 1.6M barrels in the week ended March 31, missing expectations for a 0.1M barrel decrease, following the preceding week's gain of 0.9M barrels and raising concerns over the production cut agreement.
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Upcoming events: ECB and Unemployment Claims
Thursday is set to be the day, when the European side gets to dictate the movements of the EUR/USD currency exchange rate. The reason for that is the fact that at 11:30 GMT the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released to the public. In regard to fundamental events in the US, as it is accustomed on a Thursday, the US Unemployment Claims will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Read More: Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD trades in established range
Daily Chart: On Thursday morning the common European currency traded against the US Dollar below the resistance cluster, which it faced previously. The currency exchange rate has been trading in the same range since April 2, as it is squeezed in between the resistance put up by the 55-day SMA at 1.0674, together with the monthly PP at 1.0685, and the support of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1.0639 level. The pair is set to continue the fluctuations between the two mentioned levels until a fundamental event sets the pairs future course.Daily chart
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Hourly chart: The hourly chart reveals that during Wednesday's trading session, as the currency exchange rate was heading lower, it suddenly changed its path. The rate jumped at 18:00 GMT and soon was back at the resistance of the monthly PP. The reason is clearly the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which exactly occurred at 18:00 GMT. Otherwise, the hourly chart reveals little new information. The only worth mentioning fact is that near the 1.0670 mark three hourly SMAs are located at.
Hourly chart
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Read More: Technical Analysis
Markets with mixed views
SWFX traders remain bearish on the pair, as 54% of open positions are short. However, 54% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.
OANDA traders remain in the bullish territory, as 55.47% of trader open positions are long on Thursday, compared to 54.45% previously. However, SAXO bank clients remain bearish 52.22% of open positions being short now, compared to the 54.26% positions on Wednesday.
Spreads (avg,pip) / Trading volume / Volatility
Average forecast says EUR/USD will trade around 1.075 in July
Traders, who were questioned on their longer-term views on EUR/USD between March 6 and April 6 expect, on average, the currency pair to trade around 1.075 at the start of July. In general, 40% (-2%) of participants believe the exchange rate will be generally above 1.08 in ninety days, and 23% (-1%) see it above 1.12. In the meantime, 10% (-1%) of those surveyed reckon the pair will be at parity or below. © Dukascopy Bank SA