- SWFX market sentiment is 56% bullish
- Trader pending orders are 59% to sell
- Pair opened Monday's session at the 1.0610 level
- Aggregate daily technical indicators bet EUR/USD will fall
- Economic events to watch over the next 24 hours: ECB president Mario Draghi speaks
German business sentiment remained unchanged in November, a private survey revealed on Thursday. The Munich-based Ifo economic institute reported on Thursday that its Business Climate Index came in at 110.4 in the reported month, while September's reading was unchanged at 110.4 in November, after the preceding month's reading was revised down to 110.4 from 110.5. Market analysts anticipated a slight increase to 110.6 points. The November figure suggests that executives remain positive about the country's economic growth, despite the uncertainties hanging over Brexit negotiations and Donald Trump's presidency. Back in October, the Index hit its highest level in more than two and a half years. In the meantime, the Current Assessment Index jumped to 115.6 in November from 115.1 points registered in the prior month, surpassing the 115.0 market forecast. The Business Expectations Index, which tracks sentiment in the next six months, declined to 105.5 during the reported period from 105.9 in October, falling behind analysts' expectations for 106.0. As a result, the Euro rose slightly against the US Dollar, trading at 1.0557 from 1.0556 ahead of the release, but fell against the Sterling, trading at 0.8493 from 0.8494 ahead of the data.
New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose markedly last month, driven by higher demand for machinery and other equipment, official figures revealed on Wednesday. Overall, new orders for capital goods jumped 4.8% in October, according to the US Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, market analysts anticipated a slight acceleration to 1.2%. The September figure was revised down from -0.1% to -0.3%. Demand for transportation equipment jumped 12% during the reported month, the largest gain since October 2015. Back in September, new orders for transportation equipment climbed 0.4%. Excluding orders tied to transportation, core durable goods orders increased 1.0%, following September's downwardly revised gain of 0.1% and surpassing the 0.2% rise market forecast. The US economy is set to expand at a 3.6% annual pace in the Q3, after growing 2.9% in the previous quarter. Separately, the Department of Labor reported on Wednesday the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 251,000 in the week ending November 18, up from the prior week's 233,000, whereas analysts expected a milder rise to 241,000.
Upcoming fundamentals: Mario Draghi's speech
On Monday the financial markets are set to be quiet, as there are almost no even ignorable and meaningless data releases. The only exception is the fact that at 14:00 GMT the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, is set to testify before the European Parliament's Economic Committee in Brussels. However, it is most unlikely that Draghi will say anything unexpected, which could shook both the currency and commodity markets.
EUR/USD surges past 1.0650 mark
Daily Chart: The common European currency began the week against the US Dollar higher than the previous close by 18 pips, as the currency exchange rate ended Friday's trading at 1.0590 and began Monday's session at 1.0609. Afterwards, during the first hours of the session the pair began to surge and reached the newly calculated first weekly resistance level at 1.0659. It is likely that the rate will bounce off this level and move slightly lower. However, in such case the rate would soon find support in the monthly S2 at 1.0632.Daily chart
Hourly chart: The hourly chart for the EUR/USD pair reveals that the pair actually broke through the descending channel pattern's lower upper trend line at 02:00 GMT. Moreover, the currency exchange rate afterwards began to use the line as a support level to continue its surge. Most recently the rate used the trend line to propel itself higher and break through the weekly R1 at 1.0659. Due to that the next resistance level is located at 1.0709, where the January low level is located at. However, the upper Bollinger is also in the way, preventing a possible jump.
Hourly chart
Bullish traders remain in majority
SWFX traders did not change their bullish outlook on the pair, as 56% of open positions remained long on Monday. Meanwhile, trader pending commands were bearish, as 59% of set up orders were to sell the Euro.
OANDA traders increased their bullishness, as 66.19% of open EUR/USD positions were long on Monday, compared to 64.06% long positions on Friday. Meanwhile, SAXO Bank clients have further decreased their bullish outlook, as 52.72% open positions are long, compared to 54.90% during the previous trading session.