The near term future scenarios were based upon whether or not a breakout occurs.
Economic Calendar Analysis
On Tuesday, the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders will be released at 12:30 GMT. This event has caused moves on the EUR/USD from 7.6 to 18.3 base points.
On Thursday, at 12:30 GMT two events will be released that the financial media will talk about. However, recently both of them have not caused notable moves.
Namely, the US Advance GDP caused a move below ten pips on the EUR/USD in July. In the meantime, the weekly Unemployment Claims have been quite rarely creating a move above ten pips on the mentioned rate. Dukascopy Analytics uses the 10 pips in 10 minutes, as a criteria due to it being the normal volatility of the pair.
On the same day, at 12:45 GMT expect the European Central Bank to announce its Main Refinancing Rate, which has been a zero since March 10 of 2016. Despite that, the economic calendars show it.
What matters is not the rate, but the Monetary Policy Statement of the ECB that is published at the same time. The statement released in a pdf document includes an important number - the ECB Asset Purchase Facility or the sum of how much the ECB is buying up assets.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
The EUR/USD currency pair has revealed a symmetrical triangle pattern.From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that the exchange rate could reverse north from the lower pattern line circa 1.1810. The rate could re-test the upper pattern line located circa the 1.1855 mark.
Meanwhile, note that the currency pair is pressured by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs in the 1.1830. Thus, a breakout south could occur, and the pair could re-test the support level—the monthly PP at 1.1782.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the 1.1800 level was strengthened by the support of the 55-day simple moving average. However, take into account that the SMA was pierced on Friday.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders are short on EUR/USD
Since Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange trader open positions were bearish, as 60% of open position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 64% to buy the pair.