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At the same time, Euro zone economic sentiment improved for the second consecutive month in November as an increase in industry sentiment offset pessimism among consumers, a tentative sign the currency bloc is escaping outright stagnation. According to the European Commission, economic sentiment in the 18-nation area climbed to 100.8 up from 100.7 a month earlier and 99.9 in September. The Commission forecasts the Euro zone's economy, which produces almost a fifth of global output, to avoid a recession this year. However, it will not reach solid growth until 2016, a year later than the EU executive had initially expected.
In Germany, the European powerhouse, jobless rate declined to a record low as businesses and investors believe the Europe's number one economy will continue to grow. The number of unemployed people dropped a seasonally adjusted 14,000 to 2.87 million in November, the Federal Labor Agency said. The adjusted unemployment rate was 6.6%, the lowest level on record. Germany's economy returned to growth in the third quarter and business confidence and investor sentiment both improved in November as the ECB deployed fresh stimulus to support the Euro area's economy.
Manufacturing data and speeches of FOMC members to weigh on EUR/USD on Monday
The value of the single currency will be significantly influenced in the beginning of December 1-5 trading week. As portion of fundamental data from the Eurozone and United States is going to published on that day, including activity in the manufacturing sector of many countries (Spain, Italy, Britain, US). Moreover, two members of the FOMC, the Fed's Governor Fischer and New York Fed's President Dudley, will give their speeches in the evening on Monday.{ATTACHMENT}
EUR/USD to trade range bound during first week of December
The long-term outlook for the EUR/USD cross remains bearish, as the cross has been moving downwards since the beginning of July. For the time being the pair is trading within the boundaries between 1.24 and 1.25. However, any negative impetus will push the cross down to 2014 lows around 1.2360. From another side the Euro is limited by a long-term down-trend around 1.2540; therefore, the bearish scenario is most suitable for the pair at the moment.Daily chart
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From the perspective of hourly chart, it can be observed that the EUR/USD went down yesterday to the levels seen on Tuesday of this week, as the weekly R1 at 1.2532 was able to push the shared currency to the downside. At the moment the cross is hovering just above the weekly pivot point; however, it is likely to be crossed. According to technical indicators, which became bearish on a daily chart, a decline of the pair is quite likely. Nevertheless, any downward movement will be stopped by 2014 low at 1.2358.
Hourly chart
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