As it was expected, due to the rate passing the support of the 100-hour SMA, the rate reached the combined support of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level and the 200-hour simple moving average.
On Wednesday, the rate was recovering from the support of these levels and could soon approach the resistance of the 55-hour SMA, which kept the metal down throughout the week before Christmas.
On Thursday, the US Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data will be released. It could cause a minor move in all USD traded assets.
Click on the link below to find out more about the data releases of this and other currency exchange rates.
XAU/USD short-term forecast
As the 55-hour SMA was moving lower and the 200-hour SMA gradually approached the rate from above, the metal's price was expected to get squeezed in. Namely, due to both of these technical levels reversing the price, as it approaches them, the price's volatility range would decrease, as the SMAs approach one another. These situation result in a break-out move up or down. In theory, a break-out is mostly a sharp and large move.
In the case of the 55-hour SMA being broken, the rate could jump to the resistance zone of the 1,900.00 level. On the other hand, if the 200-hour SMA and the 23.60% Fibo fail, the metal's price would reach for the support of the December low levels in the 1,820.00/1,825.00 zone.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the metal ignores the 55-day SMA, which caused a reversal in early December. In the meantime, the 100-day SMA caused a reversal by providing resistance on December 21.
Meanwhile, the rate remains in a minor channel up pattern that captures the metal's December recovery. In theory, this pattern should guide the rate to the upper trend line of the channel down that represents the metal's larger decline, which has been occurring since August.
Daily Candle Chart
Sentiment is unchanged
Since Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange the sentiment was bullish, as of total open position volume 57% was long.
Meanwhile, in the 1000-pip range around the metal's price the pending orders were 82% to buy the metal.