Gold remains near 1,293.00

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA

By the middle of Thursday's trading gold remained near the levels, where it fluctuated throughout this week.

In general, it was finding support in the technical levels at the 1,291.60 mark. However, additional gains were most likely going to be limited by a descending pattern's trend line.

Latest Notable Fundamental Event

The Federal Reserve releases US FOMC Meeting Minutes where fed officials provide in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

The meeting summary stated, "With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier."

Gold will be impacted by the US data releases

On Friday, two data releases will be covered by Dukascopy Analytics.

At 09:30 GMT the UK Retail Sales will be published. Around 10-40 base point move can be expected during the event.

The biggest event of the will occur at 13:30. The Canadian CPI will be published. On the USD/CAD there are 30 pip moves even when it hits the forecast. When the data is different there have been 40-85 pip moves.
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XAU/USD short term forecast

During the previous trading session, the yellow metal was supported by the 55-hour and the 100-hour simple moving averages.

Most likely, the gold will be retraced by the medium pattern line at 1,296.00 to push the rate to trade sideways. Moreover, it seems that the yellow metal will be trading at the 1,292.00 level during the day.

However, the gold could break the resistance of the medium pattern line at 1,296.00 to surge towards the 1,301.00 level.

Hourly Chart

A large scale review of the yellow metal's daily chart has been conducted. Zoom out the chart to see more details.

In general we have identified three patterns, which represent three various large scale trends. Two of the patterns are junior to the dominant one and have guided the commodity price into the upper trend line of the largest pattern.

The commodity price is set to test and make one attempt after another to pass the upper trend line of the just mentioned pattern near the 1,300.00 mark.

From a fundamental large scale perspective, if the US Federal Reserve slows down their restrictive monetary policy, then the US Dollar would lose value. In that case gold prices will surge above the 1,300 level.

It could occur through a sudden jump caused by a Federal Funds Rate announcement or a press conference hosted by the central bankers.

Daily Chart

Traders short the yellow metal

Traders continued to short the metal, as since Tuesday 60% of open gold positions on the Swiss Foreign Exchange were short.

In the meantime, trader pending orders in the 1000-base point range became 53% bullish on Thursday, as that proportion of orders in the range was set to buy.

In general, traders wait for a decline, but the retail sector will not cause the decline of the yellow metal, as their buy and sell orders are balanced.

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