- SWFX market sentiment is 73% bullish
- 51% of pending orders in 1000-pip range are set to SELL Gold
- Minor us data on Thursday
The metal has surged on Thursday, breaking a junior pattern. This event has also provided excellent information for larger scale forecasting on the daily chart below.
For some time there hasn't been relevant data to the commodities sector or to the yellow metal's price. However, you can read further about the latest US Crude Oil Inventories data release, which caused a notable reaction on the charts.
The Energy Information Administration released the US Crude Levels data that came out lower-than-expected of negative 2.6M, compare to forecasted negative 0.7M. This data release shows the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.
Dukascopy Bank SA comments:"The data release was unusual because the reaction on the oil price up immediately was followed by the price drop in the following minutes. The price drop most likely was caused by market participants, who took advantage of the increased liquidity and sold their oil assets."
US data and Crude Oil Inventories
Most major financial instruments will start suddenly bouncing around on US macroeconomic data releases on Thursday, as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released at 12:15 GMT and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be out at 14:00 GMT.
In addition, the US Crude Oil Inventories data release at 15:00 GMT will cause fluctuations mainly in oil prices and some currency pairs, which are influenced by the commodity.
Moreover, it will continue into Friday. On Friday, at 12:30 GMT three US employment data sets will be published.
XAU/USD short term forecast
In regards to the near future, the yellow metal will move upwards due to a strong support level of the monthly pivot point at the 1,196.00 and the 55-hour simple moving average.
Note, that the 200-hour simple moving average at the 1,202.00 level might stop the rate and push gold back to trade into the pattern.
Hourly Chart
The recent surge has given a reference point to properly chart the long term pattern that will guide the yellow metal upwards to the 1,230.00 mark.
By watching the pattern and assuming that it will easily pass the 55-day SMA at 1,220.00 and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,212.00, it can be assumed that the upper trend line of the dominant pattern will be reached by September 20.
Daily Chart
Markets remain largely bullish
74% of SWFX market traders are going long on the pair. The sentiment has remained almost unchanged for a whole week.
Meanwhile, pending buy orders indicate that there might be additional buying going on in the future, as 58% of all waiting orders are set to buy the metal.
Meanwhile, at other marketplaces long term sentiment also remains persistent. At OANDA 75% of traders are long. Likewise, SAXO Bank traders were 69% long on the yellow metal's price.