USD/JPY reaches 200-day SMA

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The release of the higher than expected US Core PCE Price Index has indicated that the Federal Reserve continues to fail its fight against US inflation. It signals that the Fed is set to hike interest rates and continue with its hawkish monetary policy. Namely, the value of the US Dollar is set to rise due to rising US interest rates.

On the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen charts has resulted in a sharp surge. The surge slowed down a bit near 136.50, before resuming on Monday. By mid-day, the pair faced the resistance of the 137.00 mark.

Economic Calendar



This week, the top event of the week will be the announcement of the US Federal Reserve Federal Funds Rate at 18:00 GMT. The Fed is expected to hike its base interest rate from 5.00% up to 5.25%. A larger increase or no increase at all would cause a sharp adjustment of the value of the US Dollar. Subsequently all of financial markets would be impacted. Meanwhile, note that the Fed has stated that rate cuts are not going to happen in 2023.

The rate publication is scheduled to be followed by the Press Conference of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell at 18:30 GMT. In most cases, comments made by the head of the central bank cause more volatility than the rate announcement. Sometimes, the comments of Powell reverse the direction of the USD.

In regards to the Fed decision, note that the head of the central bank has commented in the past that they monitor the PCE Core Inflation data. On Friday, the data set revealed that month on month the personal consumption expenditures increased by 0.3%.

Hourly Chart
A move above 137.00 is likely going to encounter resistance at 137.50 and the weekly R1 simple pivot point. Higher above, note the 138.00 and 138.50 levels and the weekly R2 at 138.82.

Meanwhile, a possible decline of the US Dollar versus the Yen could look for support at 136.50, 136.00 and 135.50. Note the approaching 50-hour simple moving average near 135.50.

USD/JPY daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the pair has reached the resistance of the 200-day simple moving average. The moving average acted as resistance in early March and caused a major decline during that month.
Daily chart



Traders are mostly short

On Monday, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange, traders were 74% bearish, as that amount of open position volume was in short positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the rate were 68% to buy the USD against the JPY.

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