- The Swiss traders are 69% bearish on the USD/JPY
- Trader pending orders in the 100-pip range are 55% to buy
- US Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT
On Thursday the USD/JPY traded near the 113.40 mark, where it had retreated after passing the support levels near 113.60 on Wednesday. From a technical perspective the rate is heading down to the 113.16 level, where the weekly S1 of the simple pivot points is located at.
Latest Fundamental Event
Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics released US PPI data that came out better than expected of 0.6%, compare to forecasted 0.2%.
"The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.6 percent in October, as prices for final demand services advanced 0.7 percent, and the index for final demand goods moved up 0.6 percent. Prices for final demand increased 2.9 percent for the 12 months ended in October.'' The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.
US Retail Sales at 13:30 GMT
The week's notable data releases end today. Namely, at 13:30 GMT the US statisticians will publish their retail sector data.For more in-depth analysis of this week's fundamental economic events watch the weekly Monday's Poking the Economic Calendar webinar, which is live each Monday at 12:00 both on Dukascopy telefision and YouTube.
USD/JPY short term analysis
In regards to the near-term future, most likely, the US Dollar will keep depreciating towards the weekly S1 at the 113.16 mark due to a lack of technical indicators which could prevent the downward movement.On the other side, today's US Retail Sales data release at 13:30 GMT may turn the rate to surge upwards to the monthly pivot point at the 113.62 mark.
Hourly Chart
What can be deducted from the daily chart is that the currency exchange rate is very far above the daily simple moving averages. Previously, it indicated that the decline will occur.
In addition, take into account that the rate is still far above the SMAs. It is still expected to retrace downwards.
Daily chart
On Wednesday the Swiss trader sentiment was 56% short. By the middle of Thursday's trading session the sentiment had jumped up to being 69% short.
In the meantime, the trader pending orders are almost neutral. Namely, the 51% of trader set up orders are set to buy.
It could be seen that the recent decline had clearly signalled a decline to the retail sector, which was now shorting the pair. Although, additional selling by the retail traders is unlikely.