In the meantime, the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages revealed that they are capable of impacting the currency pair. Although, by this week, both levels were passed. Due to this reason, it was expected that the SMAs could act as resistance.
Economic Calendar Analysis
The week will be calm. There are no events that could impact the rate up to Friday.
On Friday, the publication of the Manufacturing and Services sector Purchasing Managers Indices could cause an adjustment in currencies.
European data sets will be published from 08:15 GMT up to 09:00 GMT. The data is spread out as numbers are being released for various countries separately, before the combined PMIs are out.
The US PMIs will be out at 13:45 GMT. In most cases, the reaction to the publication is minor or the PMI publication turn out to be what is called a non-event.
EUR/USD hourly chart analysis
The ongoing surge would have to break the weekly simple pivot point at 1.0588 and the 1.0600 mark, before approaching the next resistance levels. Note the descending 200-hour simple moving average that is located near the 1.0650 mark and the impact range that surrounds this level. If these levels fail, the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.0679 and the 1.0680 level are expected to act as resistance.On the other hand, a decline might first find support in the combination of the 50 and 100-hour simple moving averages near 1.0550. If the moving averages fail, the 1.0500/1.0520 range is almost certainly going to keep the pair up. If the 1.0500 fails, the 1.0450 level and the weekly S1 simple pivot point could slow down the EUR/USD, before it reaches the 1.0400 mark.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the rate is through the 1.0635/1.0700 range and the 1.0600 mark. It has left the daily simple moving averages far above it, indicating that the rate is technically oversold. However, due to the fundamental changes going on in the USA, the oversold conditions have minor impact.The ongoing decline could find support in the late 2023 low levels at 1.0450. If this levels fail, the pair will look for support in the 1.0350/1.0400 range. This range marks the 2017 low levels. In 2022 the range acted both as support and resistance.
Meanwhile, a potential recovery will face the 1.0600 level and the 1.0635/1.0700 zone.
Daily chart
Before the US elections, traders were 58% in bullish positions. Traders were expecting a recovery of the pair.
Meanwhile, trader pending orders in the 100-pip range around the rate were set to sell. Namely, 67% of orders in that range were sell orders.
On November 11, traders had added to the long positions, as 68% of volume was in long positions.
In the meantime, pending orders were neutral, as just 51% of pending orders were to buy.
This week, on November 18, traders had added to the long positions, as 74% were already long. Everyone appears to be expecting a retracement back up.
In addition, more positions could be opened, as 53% of orders were to buy.