Economic Calendar Analysis
The US Consumer Price Inflation data is set to be published on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. The inflation is set to reveal whether the Federal Reserve is successful in its policy at reducing inflation.
On Wednesday, the top event of them all will take place. At 19:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve will release its Federal Open Market Committee Statement and Economic Projections. The central bank is expected to hike its base interest rate from 4.00% up to 4.50%.
On Thursday, at 13:15 GMT, the European Central Bank will publish its Monetary Policy Statement and with it the Main Refinancing rate. It is expected that the ECB could follow the example of the Federal Reserve. Note that most volatility occurs during the follow up press conference. The press conference is scheduled for 13:45 GMT.
Later on, at 13:30 GMT, the US Retails Sales data and Empire State Manufacturing Index might cause an adjustment in the value of the US Dollar.
The week will end with the publication of Markit Services and Manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index survey data. Note that most impact occurs due to the French and German data at 08:15 and 08:30 GMT. The European data is followed by US data at 14:45 GMT.
EUR/USD hourly chart
In the short term, a surge of the Euro against the US Dollar could test the combined resistance of the 1.0600 mark and the weekly R1 simple pivot point at 1.0603. However, note the Friday's high level zone at 1.0585/1.0589.Meanwhile, a decline of the currency exchange rate might look for support in the 50 and 100-hour SMAs near 1.0540 and 1.0530, the weekly simple pivot point at 1.0523 . Further below, note the 1.0500 mark and the 200-hour simple moving average.
Hourly Chart
EUR/USD daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, the recent surge has moved the rate once again above the 1.0350/1.0400 zone. The zone impacted the rate throughout 2021 and 2022 as support and resistance.Meanwhile, it appears that despite being pierced, the 200-day simple moving average has been acting as support.
In regards to the future, note that the 1.0600 and 1.0800 levels acted as resistance in May and June. Most recently, it was spotted that the 1.0600 had acted as resistance on December 5.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain short
Before the US CPI, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange, trader open positions were short, as 59% of open position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 55% to sell the Euro against the USD.