EUR/USD traders are long before US rate hike

Note: This section contains information in English only.
Source: Dukascopy Bank SA
The EUR/USD has reached a new low level. The reason for the decline is simple. At 18:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve will boost demand for the Dollar by increasing USD base interest rate. The question before the event is what size would the hike be, as recent 0.75% hikes have failed to stop inflation growth in the US.

Meanwhile, Dukascopy traders were long on the pair with close by sell orders.

Economic Calendar Analysis



This week, the top event of them all is scheduled for Wednesday. At 18:00 GMT, the US Federal Reserve is set to announce its Federal Funds Rate and release the FOMC Statement and Economic Projections. In general, the markets expect the US Fed to hike 0.75%. However, some market participants expect the US monetary policymakers to strengthen the USD even more, as they await a 1.00% hike.

Afterwards, at 18:30 GMT, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell will host a press conference. Quite often, the press conference reverses the initial market moves that have been caused by the monetary decision. Namely, the Chairman states something, which the market interprets as either dovish or hawkish.

On Friday, the EUR/USD is set to react to the publication of the French and German Flash Manufacturing and Services sector Purchasing Managers Indices at 07:15 and 07:30 GMT.

Later on, at 13:45 GMT, the US PMIs are scheduled to be release. However, in most cases the market ignores this event.

EUR/USD hourly chart

Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, the pair might find support in the 0.9900 mark, the September low levels at 0.9865/0.9875, the 0.9850 level and the 0.9800 mark together with the weekly S2 simple pivot point.

However, a potential recovery of the pair is set to encounter resistance in the 0.9940/0.9960 zone, before reaching the 1.0000 mark and the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages.

Hourly Chart

EUR/USD daily chart's review

On the daily candle chart, the EUR/USD pierced the resistance of the 50-day simple moving average and the upper trend line of the 2022 channel down pattern. However, the 1.0200 mark was strong enough to cause a decline.

During this week the pair remained in the borders of the pattern. In regards to the near term future, watch the summer and September low levels, which could act as support.

Daily chart




Traders are long with sell orders

Prior to the Fed Statement, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange, trader open positions were bullish, as 64% of open position volume was in long positions.

Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the pair were 61% to sell the Euro against the USD.

On Tuesday, the open positions were 61% long and pending orders were 55% to sell.

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