Despite piercing the 1.0900 level, the EUR/USD pair did not reach for the 200-hour SMA. Instead, the rate bounced off the 1.0930 mark and began a decline.
By the middle of Wednesday's GMT trading hours, the currency exchange rate had reached the support of the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages near 1.0850.
Economic Calendar Analysis
As it occurred during the last week, due to the fundamental changes in the markets, Dukascopy Analytics suggests to note the scheduled macroeconomic events, but avoid using historical data for guidance.
Namely, the whole world changes the money supply by announcing monetary stimulus and government expense increases. In other words, the central banks are creating more money and giving it to governments to stop the effects of the coronavirus. In effect, each announcement causes a fall of the currency that it affects.
However, click on the link and take a look at the last reactions to various events in March. Even already ignored events like Producers Price Index and Consumer Price Index caused notable reactions above 20 pips. Previously, the release of these data sets did not cause an increase of exchange rate volatility.
EUR/USD hourly chart's review
The pair has two possible near term future scenarios. It can either surge by finding support in the 1.0850 level or decline below it.In the case of the surge, the rate would once again test the 1.0900 level, the weekly simple pivot point at 1.0906 and the 200-hour SMA at 1.0929.
On the other hand, the pair could pass the support of the 55 and 100-hour SMAs at 1.0850. In this case the rate would have no technical support. Due to that reason previous round price levels should be looked at for guidance. For example, at the end of the last week, the rate was kept up by the 1.0780 mark.
Hourly Chart
On the daily candle chart, the surge of Tuesday was a consolidation of the previous six consecutive trading session surge. The pair is retracing back up from the support of the February low level of 1.0780.
Daily chart
Read More: Technical Analysis
Traders remain short on EUR/USD
On Wednesday, 70% of open EUR/USD position volume on the Swiss Foreign Exchange was in short positions.
The sentiment had remained almost unchanged since March 20. They stuck to their positions throughout the surge that lasted until March 27 and have been recovering their losses since that day.