Note that the article covers the period until the start of 2023. In the meantime, we would like to ask that feedback on the content would be provided via [email protected] email.
Economic Calendar
The mid-December week will end with the publication of Markit Services and Manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers Index survey data. Note that most impact occurs due to the French and German data at 08:15 and 08:30 GMT. The European data is followed by US data at 14:45 GMT.
On December 23, look out for the US Core PCE Price Index at 13:30 GMT. This indicator is used by the US Federal Reserve as the main measure of inflation. Deviations from the forecast are bound to cause adjustments in the US Dollar's value.
During the last week of the year, there are no notable scheduled events that might impact the FX market.
Hourly Chart
Support might be provided by the 137.00 level, the 136.50 mark and the 50, 100 and 200-hour simple moving averages. Further below, note the 136.00 and 135.50 levels, which have acted as support and resistance.
Meanwhile, a surge of the US Dollar would have to break the 137.95/138.20 range, before testing the 138.50, 139.00 and 139.50 levels.
USD/JPY daily chart's review
On the daily candle chart, note the 200-day simple moving average at 137.40. The SMA is acting as resistance and appears to have forced the pair down. The SMA and the upper trend line of the autumn channel down pattern were attempting to force the pair down on December 16.Daily chart
Prior to the CPI, on the Swiss Foreign Exchange, traders were 60% short, as that amount of open position volume was in short positions.
Meanwhile, trader set up pending orders in the 100-pip range around the rate were 56% to buy the USD against the JPY.
Prior to the Fed, the sentiment was 59% short and pending orders were 50% to buy and 50% to sell.
After the events, the sentiment was 61% short and orders were 77% to buy.