- SWFX market sentiment is 62% bullish
- 55% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upcoming fundamental events: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, German Buba President Weidman to speak
EUR/USD is expected to remain in the 1.1660/1.1750 range today.
The Markit released Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index data that came out better-than-expected of 54.4, compared to the 53.9 in the previous period.
"At first glance, the mild acceleration in the rate of output growth and rise in the headline PMI would appear positive," Rob Dobson, a Markit director, said. "However, scratch beneath the surface and the rebound in the PMI from April's 17-month low is far from convincing."
USM Non-Manufacturing PMI at 1400GMT
The most noteworthy fundamental event in this session is the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to be released at 1400GMT. Meanwhile, the President of Deutsche Bundesbank Jens Weidmann is due to deliver a speech ‘Reforms for a Stable Monetary Union' at 1730GMT.
EUR/USD stuck in range
Upside risks prevailed during the first part of Monday with the Euro breaching the 55-hour SMA and an eight-week channel down. The pair subsequently edged higher but nevertheless fell short of the weekly R1 and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1760. The second part of the session was spent calmly, as the rate was trading in a narrow range between the aforementioned SMA and the 1.17 mark.It is expected that the pair remains trading in the 1.1660/1.1750 range today. The southern barrier is set by the 55-period (4H) and the 100– and 200-hour SMAs, while the northern one—by the weekly R1 and the 100-period (4H) SMA. It is likely that the 55-hour SMA guides the pair during the following hours prior to letting bears to lead the way later in the evening.
Hourly Chart
The common European currency has fallen considerably against the US Dollar since mid-April which marks a 5.95% plunge within a couple of weeks.
The pair started to recover during the second part of last week after hitting a six-month low of 1.1550. It is expected that this up-move continues in the medium term. The nearest support level is the weekly R1, the monthly PP and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement. By and large, the Euro should continue its appreciation until the 200-day SMA near 1.2050 is reached.
Daily Chart
Bulls remain in charge
EUR/USD remains strongly bullish with 62% of open positions being long.
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 57% bullish and the US Dollar is 61% bearish.
OANDA traders are bullish on the Euro with 59% of open positions being long today (+3%). Meanwhile, the market sentiment of Saxo bank stands at equilibrium for the second consecutive session.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility