- SWFX market sentiment is 65% bullish (+4%)
- 64% of pending orders in 100-pip range are to SELL the Euro
- Upside potential until 1.2250
- Upcoming fundamental events: Spanish Flash CPI y/y, Spanish Flash GDP q/q, US Advance GDP q/q, US Advance GDP Price Index q/q, US Employment Cost Index q/q, US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
The pair likely to edge higher during the morning session, while being guided by the US GDP release later in the day.
The Greenback weakened against the Eurozone's single currency, following the US Durable Goods Orders data release on Thursday. The EUR/USD currency pair gained only eight pips, or 0.07%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.2187 area.
The Census Bureau released two data simultaneously, where Core Durable Goods Orders came out less-than-expected of 0.0%, however Durable Goods Orders came out better-than-expected of 2.6%. Moreover, Unemployment Claims turned out to be 209K in March.
However, the biggest fluctuations in the EUR/USD currency pair were made during the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi speech, where the real action started to take place right after the 12:30 GMT.
US Advance GDP
Friday morning is expected to be relatively calm for the EUR/USD exchange rate, as no significant fundamental events are scheduled for this period. The Spanish National Statistics Institute is to release its CPI and GDP readings at 0700GMT.
The main attention in this session will be put on the US Advance GDP at 1230GMT. Analysts expect that the US economy grew by 2% during the first quarter of 2018, compared to an increase of 2.9% in Q4Y2017. The US Advance GDP Price Index and the Employment Cost Index are likewise released at the same time.
This trading week will end with the Revised Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan at 1400GMT.
EUR/USD plunges to 1.21
The common European currency continues to weaken considerably against its American counterpart for the sixth consecutive session. On Thursday morning, the pair was bounded between a 2018 support and the 55-hour SMA. The former was breached after the ECB press conference when traders pushed the pair down to a fresh three-month low of 1.21.This mark is likely to provide some support during the first part of the day, as it is a long-term support/resistance level. This should send the Euro for a minor recovery towards the 55-hour SMA and a strong resistance point at 1.2160.
The US Advance GDP is likely to dominate the second part of this session with the daily high and low being located at 1.2200 and 1.2030, respectively.
Hourly Chart
The strong downside momentum this week has resulted in a breakout of the 55-day SMA and the senior channel circa 1.23. By Tuesday morning, the Euro was testing the 100-day moving average.
It is likely that some bullish correction occurs this week; however, the trend in the medium term should nevertheless remain south. The following downside target is the 200-day SMA near 1.20.
Daily Chart
Bulls grow stronger
EUR/USD keeps strengthening its bullish sentiment with 65% of open positions being long (+4%).
The outlook for the two currencies against the rest of the traded financial instruments is as follows: the Euro is 51% bullish and the US Dollar is 58% bearish.
The market sentiment of OANDA remains bearish today, as 53% of its traders are holding short positions (+2%). Meanwhile, Saxo Bank clients share the same sentiment with 56% of open positions being short (+2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility