- 51% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY the Pound
- SWFX market sentiment is at equilibrium
- Upcoming fundamentals: US Existing Home Sales
It is expected that the senior channel holds the Pound and thus allows for a recovery today.
The British Pound weakened against the Greenback, following the UK Retail Sales data release on Thursday. The GBP/USD currency pair lost 12 pips, or 0.09%, to continue fluctuating in the 1.4171 area.
The Office for National Statistics revealed lower-than-expected retail sales data for the month of March. Britain's sales volume declined by 1.2%, compared to 0.8% increase in the prior period.
One of the main reasons for such low consumer spending was due to the snow storms over the UK or as they call it: "Beast from the East", that discouraged people to go for a shopping, thus preventing the sales volume to increase to the forecast level.
Calm session
This session is likely to be calm in terms of fundamentals, as the only data release is the US Existing Home Sales for the month of March at 1400GMT.
GBP/USD falls down to senior channel
Despite the massive plunge on Thursday, the Sterling failed to accelerate against the US Dollar during the following day. As a result, the pair lost 87 pips and reached the combined support of the senior channel, the weekly S1 and the monthly PP.The rate lingered near the channel line on Monday morning, thus showing that bulls have managed to regain enough strength to resist a further fall. Technical indicators are slowly recovering from their lows which likewise adds some ground to a possible upward momentum today. No resistance is limiting the pair until the psychological 1.41 mark where the 55-hour SMA is located.
In case of a strong up-move, the Pound could hinder near this moving average for a brief period of time prior to taking on the course towards the 100– and 200-hour SMA circa 1.42.
Hourly chart
The Sterling was driven by strong downside potential last week. As a result, the pair plunged down to the combined support of the 55-day SMA, the monthly PP and a trend-line circa 1.4020. The strength of this cluster suggests that the Pound might fail to breach it immediately, thus trading along the 55-day moving average for the following sessions.
Daily Chart
The SWFX market sentiment stands at equilibrium for the second consecutive session on Monday. Meanwhile, 54% of pending orders are to sell the Pound.
OANDA traders have turned bullish on the Pound with 51% of their open positions being long. Saxo Bank is still bearish with 52% of its clients holding short positions (-2%).
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility