- 58% of pending orders in the 100-pip range are to BUY
- SWFX market sentiment stands at equilibrium
- Daily high at 1.40
- Upcoming events: US Building Permits and Housing Starts, US Capacity Utilisation Rate, US Industrial Production, US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment
The three simultaneously released reports created small increase in volatility in the financial currency market.
The US unemployment claims data came out slightly better than expected, and with a help of the positive Empire State manufacturing index data, pushed EUR/USD pair lower. However, the Philly Fed manufacturing index data came out a bit short of expectations, as the divergence did not surprise the markets enough for a correction.
US Building Permits
The most important fundamental event in this session is the Building Permits published by the US Census Bureau at 1230GMT. Analysts expect that the number of new residential building permits rose by 1.32M in February, compared to an increase of 1.38M during the preceding month.
Other US fundamentals of intermediate importance are likewise scheduled for today, namely, the Housing Starts at 1230GMT, the Capacity Utilisation Rate and Industrial Production at 1315GMT and the Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment at 1400GMT.
GBP/USD: two scenarios possible
The Sterling continues to depreciate against the US Dollar for the second consecutive session. This movement has been constrained in a rather flat channel down. In case the current sentiment is to persist, the pair is likely to reach the lower boundary of a medium-term channel circa 1.39. The 200-hour SMA is likewise located near this area.Technical indicators, however, are more favourable of the bullish scenario. At the time of this analysis, the pair was trading between two strong barriers one of which being the 55-hour SMA and the 38.20% Fibo retracement at 1.3960. The prevalence of bulls would result in a breakout of this resistance and a subsequent surge towards the three-week high at 1.40 where the senior channel is located.
Hourly chart
The GBP/USD currency pair was moving along the 55-day SMA during the previous week. The Pound, however, failed to surpass the 1.40 mark, thus diminishing its trading range.
Even though some upward momentum might still follow this week, it seems that the pair is ready to breach the aforementioned moving average decline down to the bottom boundary of the senior channel located near 1.3650.
Daily Chart
The SWFX market sentiment stands at equilibrium early today, compared to 51% long positions on Thursday. Meanwhile, 55% of pending orders are to buy the Sterling (+3%).
The market sentiment of OANDA is bullish with 51% of its clients holding long positions (-1%). Saxo Bank clients have not changed their sentiment since yesterday which is currently standing at 58% short positions.
Spreads (avg, pip) / Trading volume / Volatility